British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - May 10th 
Races :-
  • 69: Ascot 2:50, 5f Maiden (3)
  • 70: Haydock 3:30, 6f Maiden (5)
  • 71: Thirsk 6:10, 5f Seller (6)
  • 72: Warwick 6:25, 5.5f Auction (5)

  •   May 10th Summary : 
     
    • The headline for the day is that Saturday sees the start of the 6f races for juveniles with Haydock staging the first race at that distance. Warwick splits the difference by running a race over 5 and a half furlongs. With much of the racing so far having been done on softer going we haven't really seen a great deal of all out 'speed' 5f races and many of the times have been slower than a 5.5f race would have been and some, on the stiffer courses like Beverley, have strayed into 6f time range. Aside from that a 6f race is a different test of a racehorse because it brings into play the aerobic metabolic pathway for producing energy in a way that a 5f race may not.
    • At Ascot the 5f maiden race has a much smaller field than 2007 (Result) which produced 7 later winners including the Windsor Castle victor (Drawnfromthepast) and the Coventry Stakes third (Swiss Franc). This year's field of five looks a bit shorter on quality, as well as numbers, on profile. The obvious place to start is with the sole filly in the group with Glamorous Spirit. Yesterday's preview laboured the 'Noseda debut' approach and he didn't let us down with Mythical Border routing a suspect group having drifted to 5/1 which looked good before the event and a right royal bargain after it. He's two from two with 2008 debuts and here he starts out another better profile type earlier than his usual - he must be ahead of schedule or have a stable stuffed with talent this year.
    • Glamorous Spirit was bought for a relatively expensive £105,000 as a 2yo at Kempton's breeze up sales that has already produced some early debut winners. She's owned by a partnership called 'The Searchers' for whom he had debut wins with Fleeting Spirit & Strike The Deal last year (plus a duff one called Lemon N Sugar who cost $350k just to prove isn't all just too easy...). This on has a solid 2yo pedigree and is out of a dam by Air Express who was a loss as a sire when he only had a couple of small crops before he died (including the useful fillies Airwave & Presto Vento). The trainer is 1 from 4 with debuts at Ascot (all in July previously) and the win was by Group 1 winner Carry On Katie while the other three were average types, at best.
    • You can't see this one drifting and worth checking what value she is compared tot he opposition. Terry Mills gets his 2yo wins in the second half of the season for the most part and the early debuts can be variable. Even those that place FTO can take a few runs to fulfil the potential. He runs (yet) another Kempton graduate with the £25,000 Court Approval. He's only had a couple of 2yo debuts at Ascot before including Pegasus Again who was narrowly beaten in last year's Chesham Stakes at the Royal Meeting first up. This one doesn't have that type of profile.
    • Gerard Butler has had a challenging time recently. 2007 saw his 2yos out of form and he didn't have a winner before the close of the turf season. In the past he was a trainer that identified the better 2yos and targeted their first two outings before they ran. This looked very like the Noseda approach now with debut winners running in Listed+ races 14-21 days after the first run and looking like that was always the plan before they ran. He lost some major owners prior to 2007 and has had to move to new stables in 2008 away from the base at Compton in Oxfordshire owned by Swedish businessman Erik Penser (Compton & Beauchamp....etc).
    • If we go back to the 2002-5 period before the changes he was 2 from 5 with debuts of 2yos in May. Similar to Noseda if they were starting out before his normal later June period it was because they had shown something to make it worth running them. So, why is he running Agente Parmigiano? On pedigree you couldn't get much enthused, the dam was a poor AW maiden around Southwell for the most part. She was mostly related to maidens & garbage aside from the the family 'freak' of Ron's Victory. In that context 26,000gns seems a highish price so perhaps he has got some physical presence. The trainer's three previous Ascot debuts haven't been better types so an interesting runner but not a Noseda challenger.
    • Richard Hannon runs Roly Boy who missed his intended debut in the Newbury conditions race where he would have been second string to the stable's Sun Ship. The trainer has started 20 juveniles at Ascot in the period 2002-7 with three wins and a profit backing them because they have been in the 8/1 to 10/1 range. On the other hand more than half have not made the first four in smaller to medium sized fields and, as a group, they are a mixed bunch. This one also comes from the Kempton sales and cost £57,000 and intermediate between Court Approval & Glamorous Spirit. 
    • The only runner with experience is Dabbers Chief who showed only inexperience in his first outing in that Newbury race that Roly Boy side-stepped. On the positive side he looked a good physical type and this sort of race within his capabilities. However, the stable only had it's first 2yo winner yesterday when Art Princess scrambled home at Nottingham and the STO runners have been mixed. Given his moderate first effort you would want an each-way price to be interested.
    • In summary, Glamorous Spirit has a good all round profile but the price is likely to be too short. Court Approval & Roly Boy are unlikely winners of this type of race which leaves Agente Parmigiano & Dabbers Chief as the possible alternatives. The first has positives related to the trainer but the profile is too thin overall. Which leaves Dabbers Chief as the mot likely winner if the filly fails to come up to the standards of the trainer's first two newcomers on 2008.
    • The Warwick race is a lower quality Auction race.  Despite that billing in 2007 (Result) it produced 9 later winners including the triple winner Spitfire and the Redcar Trophy winner Dubai Dynamo. You never quite know with these Auction races, one year they will have a lot of competitive horses despite the lower sales prices and the next they can be devoid of talent. One of the non winners in last year's race was the favourite Ben who was a classic example of a precocious horse who ran in the first race of the year and didn't have any scope to develop physically. His early season placed form got read as 'ok' so he starts a short price but he sets a low standard so keeps on running into horses with more ability starting out later.
    • This year's edition looks pretty empty. At the top of the weights you have Hannon's Buddy Marvelous who was given a rather quiet introductory effort as second string to the stable's useful Heliodor first time. Given the 'tender handling' he ran well enough and while no star in Paddock Review you think he can rate OR65-73. But, he is giving 5lb and upwards to everything else in the race and you think that something else will come out higher on profile with the weight concession. But, he's well clear of the others even given that background. Which means that the field is pretty empty of obvious talent and last year's winner total isn't going to be matched in 2008. 
    • Undoubtedly one or two of the cheaper purchases will prove to be usable and compete well here but they would be difficult to identify without being at the course. The few who cost a bit more at the sales run for trainers who don't do strong debut runs so would need to be naturals and a little above average to compete for the win. Of the cheaper types the filly Baby Special  receiving 12lbs and the colt Creshendo appeal as likely to make the first 4 to 5 and John Best's Black N Brew in the same category. Worth also noting that Excellerator has a solid pedigree in the context of the race but is the first 2yo runner for his trainer so sits lower than he would in the profile if he were with a 'known' trainer.
    • In summary, an uneasy feeling that a horse who finished an uncompetitive 6th on debut sits clear on the profile. If the others really are the mix of lower quality and/or indifferent debut preparations as per the profile Buddy Marvelous might well win comfortably while achieving not a right lot. Difficult to recommend a worthy alternative. Worth a report back form Paddock Review if one of the others just looks that bit different on the day.
    • Look Willoughby, of course size matters. With other things equal the bigger horse will win most of the time. When a horse surprises you with it's performance try going to look at it. You won't find that a scrawny rabbit has put up a good effort you'll almost certainly find the horse doesn't look like an OR50 type (or whatever) in it's appearance. If it is a scrawny rabbit then doubt the quality of the form because the horse is telling you it didn't run that quickly.
    • Thursday brought a good example with Amosite running a close second at 40/1 on her fourth run and it took the evens favourite most of the race to close her down have granted her an easy lead. Amosite was in first time blinkers which no doubt aided her improved showing but try looking at this Picture of her. She's a tall girl by precocious 2yo standards and well enough built. She'd have been the biggest in that field at Nottingham even though favourite Art Princess is a solid size. Turn up on the course and just back the biggest and you would wonder where the 50s and 40s came from.
    • Which brings us to the Haydock 6f maiden field. If you look at the Virtual Paddock for this race below you will see three horses. The first is the filly Danidh Dubai who was a long price and ran poorly at Newmarket behind Art Princess. On Paddock Review she scored a positive for size, strength, etc and the problem looked to be more on the mental side. Too wound up and also in moderate condition coatwise etc. In early season a number of the Channon horses looked like this (all ages) but seem to have got past that now and he had a 2yo winner with a filly who faded badly FTO and looked similarly short of condition. Give that positive she comes out joint top on profile and a much better showing should be expected today. 
    • The second picture shows the colt Old Father Zieten who is a different physical type to the filly. He's smaller and more compact and lacking her quality and also some range in movement. On the positive side he's neatly made and in proportion (typical of a Tom Dascombe purchase) and a usable 2yo. He was too daft at Brighton to show his real ability but kept on well late on. He's another who should show up well here but his lack of size and quality means that the bigger ones in the field should have a bit too much quality for him.
    • The third picture in the VP is of Alan Jarvis' Fasalee who has been highlighted here before. Jarvis buys taller horses and prefers range in movement to pure bulk (unlike Hannon and Meehan for example). As a trainer he doesn't turn out competent professionals FTO and Fasalee was at the wilder end on his first racecourse effort and showed little. But, he's in the 'Amosite' file because he's big enough and with enough athleticism to be better than his debut suggested. Another duff effort here might be followed by a 33/1 third somewhere because his form will read badly but he's still a usable horse at his level, if a bit gawky and narrow to add to the wilfulness.
    • The Haydock race sees a number of interesting newcomers and in particular Scrapper Smith. A mostly positive story in profile and his trainer has a good record of getting debut wins with the right material. Interesting to note that he is by the sire Choisir who can get heavily built 2yos and they often need the first run to develop from. On TV pictures alone the Kevin Ryan 2yo Coleorton Choice (by Choisir) looked 'fat' for debut and could be crossed of the potential winner list. Assuming Scrapper Smith is at the more immediately mobile end of the sire's progeny the trainer's preparation should see him compete for the win here.
    • Sweet Smile is covered in the FTO P&L box below. Seaway is John Gosden's second debut of the season and regular readers will know that B2yoR can find assessing his newcomers tricky. Just when you've been lulled into ignoring them up one pops at a longer SP. In general the debut winners tends to be the higher class types though and that means they are often for Princess Haya because he trains a lot of luxury horses for her. This one cost 160,000gns at the Doncaster St Leger Sales and high for that venue. The sales report colourfully notes that the room filled (with bidders and the interested bywatchers) when this one was offered and the likes of John Fretwell also bid. Bidding against the Maktoum family is a tough shift though. The report quite liked this one and a certain maiden winner but not obviously the superior type that would win FTO for these connections.
    • In summary, and interesting profile with Danidh Dubai and Scrapper Smith likely to be at longer SPs despite their top-of-the-profile billing. Seaway likely to be poorer value and there ought to be more physical boot on show to prevent Old Father Zieten from winning. Oh, and what's that big, leggy, thing hanging all over the place but still 'on the premises', might be Fasalee if he ever calms down.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Sweet Smile  (Haydock, KA Ryan, 5f), full brother to an April FTO winner for the yard in 2007 (Kersaint).
    • Creshendo (Warwick, RM Beckett, All). Trainer 2 from 7 with debuts this year plus a couple of FTO places. This one cost only £1,500 at the sales but is in a reasonable race for his profile. These cheaper runners are an area where the trainer has a good record of finding wins but they tend to be on the STO run when at their peak.
    •   Thirsk :-
    • Bold Account (KR Burke, 5-6f), trainer not quite into his debut winning patch and they tend to be with the better 2yos. Odd seller wins but usually needs a weak race even at that level to get a debut win.
    • Mimicker (MW Easterby, Long Shot). Trainer normally gets his 2yos ready early and debuts them as a batch in March to April. Only two runners to date and one of those placed second at 25/1 on debut to make the point again that he does have his horses ready for debut despite what other publications will tell you. Had 10 runners by this point in 2007 and a 25/1 success. This one is second string in a seller and makes little appeal as a 'surprise' usable type.

    ~ ASCT 2:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    5 GLAMOROUS SPIRIT [44] - 1 31
    3 DABBERS CHIEF [40] -5 2 8 1 8 39
    1 AGENTE PARMIGIANO [37] -5 1
    4 ROLY BOY [36] -5 1 29
    2 COURT APPROVAL [30] -5 1 30

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    ~ HYDK 3:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    10 DANIDH DUBAI [40] - 2 17 1 17 35
    5 SCRAPPER SMITH [40] -5 1 12
    7 SWEET SMILE [36] -5 1 32
    6 SEAWAY [35] -5 1 33
    3 OLD FATHER ZIETEN [31] -5 2 9 1 9
    9 TISHTAR [31] -5 1 29
    2 MANERO [24] -5 1 39
    8 TAGALURA [22] -5 1
    1 FASALEE [20] -5 2 10 1 10 13
    4 POKFULHAM [16] -5 2 -21 1 -21 22
    12 WELL OF ECHOES [11] - 1 12
    11 HERECOMESBELLA [9] - 1 13

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    ~ THSK 6:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 ALPHABETH [20] - 3 18 2 -6 35
    3 KINGS HOUSE [20] -5 3 15 1 15 26
    11 ROSE OF COMA [20] - 2 7 1 7 36
    1 BOLD ACCOUNT [18] -5 1 24
    2 DAZZLING DUST [16] -5 4 15 2 10 11
    5 CHARLY'S ROSE [14] - 1 33
    10 RIOJA RUBY [10] - 2 -14 1 -14 33
    7 KHELEY [9] - 3 -13 1 -13 17
    8 MIMICKER [8] - 1 26
    9 NAUGHTY NATZ [6] - 2 -2 1 -2 23
    6 FRENCH FOREST [2] - 2 -24 1 -24 16

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    ~ WWCK 6:25 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 BUDDY MARVELLOUS [36] - 2 24 1 24 29
    13 BABY SPECIAL [28] +12 1 31
    6 CRESHENDO [26] +7 1 26
    2 BLACK N BREW [23] +5 1 31
    14 BARCODE [21] +12 1 29
    11 EXCELLERATOR [21] +8 1
    5 WING HOME [21] +5 1
    3 COCKTAIL PARTY [20] +5 1 24
    9 RIGGED [18] +7 1 39
    12 BRIERTY [15] +10 2 2 1 2 39
    8 LESLEY'S CHOICE [15] +7 1 15
    4 SPEAK THE TRUTH [14] +5 1 32
    7 FORSTER ISLAND [12] +7 2 2 1 2 14
    16 SHARP DISCOVERY [7] +12 4 -4 2 -23 2
    15 DANCING WELCOME [6] +12 2 -13 1 -13 2
    10 TYLER [4] +7 2 -73 1 -73 17

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