British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season Race Preview

British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season

Racing Preview - July 11th

Races :-

317: Ascot 2:25, 6f Maiden (3)

318: Chepstow 7:00, 5.1f Novice (4)

319: Chester 7:10, 5.1f Conditions (2)

320: Chester 8:15, 6f Nursery (4)

321: Newbury 6:20, 7f Maiden Fillies' (4)

322: Newmarket July 2:00, 7f Group 2 (1) "Superlative Stakes"

323: Newmarket July 3:45, 6f Maiden Fillies' (2)

324: Newmarket July 4:20, 7f Nursery (2)

325: York, 2:15, 7f Maiden (3)

July 11th Summary :

[For those who regularly review the Virtual Paddocks - try looking through the 9 pictures for the Newmarket Nursery. The topweighted pair are both precocious types by the Sire Beat Hollow and well built. They have been given Official Ratings around 85 which is low for this Class 2 Nursery and it looks a below average group for that level overall. The pictures are now in Profile Rating order and Hay Fever (2nd yesterday) is on OR81 and Liturgical OR76. See how much you agree with the theory that the horses become less powerful with lessening Official Rating (see the racecard numbers at the side of the table with the topweight number 1) and this is visible in the pictures. One point to note is that the side-on pictures do not always show the narrowness of the body - try discerning how narrow Liturgical and Daddys Gift are compared to the topweights and Duke Of Aquitaine has some measure of the same problem. Note that Beat Seven looked to have gone backwards from her early season self at Royal Ascot and had gone lighter bodied along with nervous sweating. She would need to have gone back to her let-me-at-them 'bull' appeareance to be worth OR80s. Do you agree that Motor Home looks the strongest & most mature and the best looking of the group? He disappointed last time but ought to be able go well off OR84 in this field. Measurement is solidly built but not the biggest in terms of heght and frame which would limit him in a stronger grade.]
Also note for Nurseries that it can be difficult to size up how competitive the lowest weights who have come out of seller grade races can be. In many races they will be getting up to 23 pounds (i.e. rating points) from the topweight. For a low class seller winner this will not be enough to allow the plater to compete with better types. The ratings scale is not Linear in the sense that their are 'Class Level' of physical types (and most importantly of cruising speeds for efficiency) within the scale. If the seller winner is actually a better physical type for the grade they can compete at a higher level or compete in weak open nurseries.
To date the seller/claimers types to run in nurseries have been :-
Elaine's Folly - 4th of 6th at 7/2 at Hamilton off OR62 and not competitive to win
Simple Rhythm - 2nd of 5 at 9/2 off OR77 (15 points above the usual OR62 for a seller type for winning by 6 lengths in her plating race). Beaten 5 lengths by the higher class Rievaulx World but clear of some weak and slow types.
Just The Lady - Claimer winner off OR67 and 3rd in a bunch finish behind dead-heaters. The topweight was only on OR76 and no other horse above OR70 so a weak nursery and probably claimer class. The OR53 Kings House came out top on raw Profile for B2yoR but was downgraded because it didn't look right. He finished last but beaten 1.5 lengths but denied a clear run on several occasions late in the race so might have won.
Madame Jourdain - 2nd at 33/1 off OR65 at Pontefract behind a 33/1 winner (Rosabee won again yesterday and one of two Nursery wins for trainer Viky Haigh this week). A puzzling race with lots of poor runs by better fancied runners behind the two 33/1 shots and runners strung out at the finish. The later win of Rosabee suggests perhaps that the actual result was no fluke (i.e. not pace or track bias assisted).
In summary, the B2yoR ratings are an ongoing development and matching up the low class winners moving into open nurseries is an area for further investigation. Today Alphabeth (OR61) comes out top on profile for the nursery at Chester having won a weak 5f seller at Thirsk in April which has produced only one later winner (seller level) although Kings House was in behind. She had looked a short runner previously and the easy 5f at Thirsk what she needed. She steps up to 6f and that could be beyond her scope unless she has improved physically. She faces a seller class runner in Transcentral plus a filly who is probably only slightly better in physical terms in Cornish Rose who won an empty fillies' race at the course. The test is how she competes with the bigger colts Officer Mor & Mister Green - bigger in the sense of more powerfully built since both are on the short side in height and not better types. Despite the rating you imagine one of the bigger types will wear her down in the straight.
At Newmarket in the Class 2 race Scenic Pass (Mick Channon trained again) runs in the Class 2 nursery off OR65 (note again how the OR60 to OR69 range gets used by the BHA handicapper for seller/claimer winner level) having competed well in three seller recently including two of the most well endowed in prize money terms of the season. On B2yoR ratings she comes out about averagely weighted to be competitive but you imagine that she would be broken and out the back given a strong pace rather than finishing in midfield.
One to track

Race Virtual Paddocks	FTO P&L Qualifiers
Ascot (4 Horses) Chepstow (3) Chester 7:10 (3) Chester 8:15 (3) Newbury (7) Newmarket 2:00 (4) Newmarket 3:45 (1) Newmarket 4:20 (9)	None Today.

	~ ASCT 2:25 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
12	RUASGREYASME	[40]	-	1					35
2	ALYARF	[38]	-5	1					37
6	PAGAN FORCE	[35]	-5	2		2	1	2	32
11	DESERT SUNSET	[34]	-	3		28	2	16	38
7	PARTY CAT	[33]	-5	3		26	2	26	35
10	ZAFFAAN	[29]	-5	2		22	1	22	32
3	AULD ARTY	[28]	-5	3		30	1	30	41
4	DOCTOR PARKES	[25]	-5	1					36
5	HUM CAT	[24]	-5	2		12	1	12	21
8	RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH	[23]	-5	1					34
9	YEOMAN BLAZE	[18]	-5	3		9	2	7	34
1	ALL SPIN	[16]	-5	2		-2	1	-2	28

Back to Top of Page

	~ CHEP 7:00 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
1	MAZZOLA	[41]	-	7		47	3	16	34
5	NIGHT SEED	[40]	+12	2		12	1	12	35
4	TIMETEAM	[38]	+7	4		31	3	17	31
3	CONAKRY	[21]	+7	2		-35	1	-35	34
2	COLIN STAITE	[0]	+7	3		-43	2	-180

Back to Top of Page

	~ CHES 7:10 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
3	MADAME TROP VITE	[45]	-	3		44	2	33	33
2	DOUGHNUT	[41]	-	6		44	3	34	35
1	COUNTRYWIDE CITY	[38]	-2	5		38	4	19	44
5	OUR WEE GIRL	[38]	+3	5		32	2	24	31
4	DIGIT	[35]	+3	4		38	2	-5	35

Back to Top of Page

	~ CHES 8:15 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
5	ALPHABETH	[38]	-	4		21	3	-6	34
2	OFFICER MOR	[37]	-18	4		32	2	30	35
1	MISTER GREEN	[36]	-23	3		33	1	33	29
3	CORNISH ROSE	[30]	-17	3		24	1	24	28
4	TRANSCENTRAL	[30]	-4	6		23	2	3	15

Back to Top of Page

	~ NWBY 6:20 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
2	BALLYALLA	[38]	-	1					35
1	ANAASHEED	[37]	-	1					36
15	TRIPLE CEE	[37]	-	2		35	1	35	34
6	IT'S TOAST	[36]	-	2		8	1	8	34
11	MISS SOPHISTICAT	[33]	-	1					40
4	DREAM IN WAITING	[30]	-	2		11	1	11	36
13	POLLY'S MARK	[30]	-	1					36
8	LAKE KALAMALKA	[29]	-	1					36
7	KEY SIGNATURE	[28]	-	2		24	1	24	31
3	DAHAMA	[26]	-	1					35
9	LE GRAND AMOUR	[22]	-	2		12	1	12	37
10	MINOR VAMP	[21]	-	2		16	1	16	35
5	FLEUR DE'LION	[19]	-	1					31
12	POLLY'S CHOICE	[19]	-	3		14	2	13	35
14	PROTIVA	[15]	-	2		3	1	3	28

Back to Top of Page

	~ NMKJ 2:00 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
3	GRAND DUCAL	[67]	-	3					65
8	WEALD PARK	[64]	-	3		37	2	25	35
5	PRIME SPIRIT	[60]	-	3		45	2	29	35
4	MANAGUA	[58]	-	3		40	2	24	34
1	DEADLY SECRET	[56]	-	2		44	1	44	32
9	SANVEAN	[55]	+3	2		35	1	35	34
6	SAPPHIRE PRINCE	[53]	-	3		30	2	2	31
7	SHAWEEL	[52]	-	4		51	3	45	38
2	FIRTH OF FIFTH	[49]	-	6		44	5	26	29

Back to Top of Page

	~ NMKJ 3:45 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
2	ARCTIC FREEDOM	[42]	-	2		27	1	27	32
3	EVENING SUNSET	[40]	-	1					34
1	AL SABAHEYA	[35]	-	1					35
8	RESPITE	[35]	-	1					40
5	GIVE	[34]	-	3		22	1	22	35
11	ZELLOOF	[34]	-	1					49
6	HELPMERONDA	[33]	-	1
9	SHARPENER	[32]	-	1					35
7	LOVELY THOUGHT	[29]	-	1					40
4	FANTASIA	[26]	-	1					32
10	XAAROON	[24]	-	1					16

Back to Top of Page

	~ NMKJ 4:20 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
6	MEASUREMENT	[49]	-	4		46	3	25	35
2	BAD BEAT	[46]	-2	6		51	5	-20	25
3	URAMAZIN	[46]	-1	4		44	2	23	34
12	LITURGICAL	[44]	+7	5		34	4	15
4	MOTOR HOME	[44]	-1	5		38	3	1	34
7	HAY FEVER	[42]	+2	6		40	4	16	20
11	DADDY'S GIFT	[41]	+6	4		34	3	30	35
13	SCENIC PASS	[40]	+16	5		20	4	1	34
8	FAREER	[39]	+3	3		39	2	32	32
1	BEAT SEVEN	[38]	-3	4		40	2	35	21
10	DUKE OF AQUITAINE	[38]	+6	5		29	4	25	36
5	GAL ALOUD	[38]	-	4		34	2	26	35
9	HAVEN'T A CLUE	[35]	+5	4		27	2	1	25

Back to Top of Page

	~ York ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
8	YORGUNNABELUCKY	[42]	-	2					38
7	SULTANS WAY	[34]	-	1					36
1	BLACKSTONE VEGAS	[30]	-	1					30
2	GULF PRESIDENT	[28]	-	1					34
5	PILOT LIGHT	[28]	-	2		14	1	14	18
3	HIGHLAND STORM	[26]	-	2		10	1	10	23
4	MEFRAAS	[24]	-	2		18	1	18	32
6	RISING PROSPECT	[17]	-	1					16

Back to Top of Page