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Virtual Paddock = Salisbury (Spanish Acclaim
& State Fair).
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Reference VP = Newbury full field from
April 17th.
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What to make of the Novice race at York yesterday? These earlier season
Novices can often be tricky with the early season runners already race
fit and the horses with potential often short in fitness & nous. Allow
the ready type to dictate it's own pace, whether on soft or faster going,
and they can win without being the best long term prospect. If you look
back to the Novice at the Meeting in 2005 the ready filly Amber Glory (on
5TO at 9/1) won from the small colt Soto (2nd at 16/1) having been allowed
to lead and track-in-second at their own paces. They were both precocious
and ahead of the Weight-For-Age Curve but lacking development physically.
Both had a go in better races and started their handicap careers rated
in the OR80s. Both were into the OR70s by the end of their 2yo seasons
and got below OR70 as 3yos with Soto recovering a little to around OR72
(OR62 at present). Amber Glory carried on standing still as the Weight-For-Age
barrier went away from her into the OR50s at 3yo.
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You would think that is what we have with Fratellino, a very precocious
natural with his best advantage at this time of the year. Probably get
OR80s unless he competes well in better races and decline in later season.
Just occasionally one of these small ones really surprises and continues
to compete into the OR90s (Titus Alone a reasonable example) but they are
rare.
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In this race Ventura Cove did not look fit enough and trainer Fahey said
before racing that with the firm ground few of his 2yos had been on grass
this year. Perhaps that has something to do with the uncompetitive 5f debuts
from the yard so far. Given his condition and the fact he is not an outright
5f horse Ventura Cove ran ok but was always going to struggle to get 2
lengths given away for free to Fratellino at the start back on quicker
going and the leader allowed a soft lead to go at his own, most economic,
rhythm. Ventura Cove has also looked a slow learner in both races and can
get intimidated mentally by other horses. When he is fitter & mentally
more mature he may well blossom over 6f. King Of Axum looked clueless &
lacking pace FTO despite the win and gave a similar effort here. Paradise
Dream came from a slow race where he proved nothing and the Market said
here he was not a higher class one. He never looked to have the pace for
5f nor to pick up later in the race.
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Starburst Excel had blasted along on debut at Newmarket but the trainer's
brother said in interview prior to the race that they wanted to hold her
up here because she was too fizzy. He also said they had run in the Novice
race rather than the Marygate on Friday because the fillies' race looked
a tough race and because Alan Munro would not be available while he was
today. She did not run well being settled and did not finish the race off
anyway. Taking away the natural speed she does have at the start of a race
left her with nothing to offer. Worth recording that she was the second
lifeless run from the stable in the last few days following Last Orders
at Yarmouth.
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Go back to Fratellino's debut at Beverley when he won at 20/1 and one of
the small set of Northern paddock judges had picked him out and backed
him. No interest in form, pedigrees, the draw and the like just gut reaction,
or perhaps female intuition in this case. B2yoR has seen this person do
similar things often enough to know there is something more going on here
than Agnes Haddock style numerology. But, ask them after the event what
it was they 'saw' before the race and they can never articulate it. This
inability is not uncommon and it isn't an attempt to put the questioner
away but a reflection of how the subconscious brain works. But, is does
mean that these paddock types make poor teachers for others. Like having
a Maths teacher spouting numbers with no explanation or reasoning.
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Anyway, enough of the excuses and trying to put Fratellino in context.
Let's hope something bigger wins the Windsor Castle. If you look back to
the Ascot Conditions race in early May the 3rd & 4th have now both
won Class 3 races by some distance. Both have beaten similar fields of
good prospects who have been caught out by the nippiness & professionalism
of the winners to some extent. But, it does make Red Jazz seem better considering
they were both comfortably dealt with by him & Archers Road.
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The 6f Maiden at York in theory has a similar Experience vs Potential
set-up with two horses with early season form taking on 8 with, mostly,
better longterm profiles. Trade Secret steps up to 6f having been
unable to produce ann effort or any progress later in the race in two early
season 5f events. Unlike Fratellino he has not managed to win or show that
he has more professionalism than the others. His trainer can instil that
and he should be further forward in fitness than most. The 6f race always
more time for basic ability to show through but a well prepared OR75 type
can run well in this type of race.
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Tagula Pearl plugged on for fourth last time again looking like
she lacked 5f pace. If you just look at the names around her then the first,
third, 6th & 8th from that race are all in the 5f Listed race for fillies
here on Friday. The 5th ran ok when setting a stiff pace at Hamilton last
week although although softening herself up for a 66/1 rag to defeat her.
Again though, she has not shown the zip or professionalism to suggest she
can use the experience of two runs as a weapon against better physical
types. The winner last year was a STO runner with a minor placing to his
name but that turned out to be Lord Shanakill so not a precocious try-on
but the real thing. The winners between 2003-7 had all been on debut and
the fact that this race is targeted by some bigger stables with better
types often means the readiest of them will win.
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This year there are eight strong newcomers to choose from and a difficult
job to identify the best without having seen them. The Aiden O'Brien debut
runners in Britain have overall been higher class types and some very good.
However, there seems to have been a change in debut readiness since around
2005. When Marcus Andronicus won the equivalent York maiden in 2005 the
trainer's record with British debuts was 4 from 9 since 2002 with three
other places. The early debuts have included some of his best early runners
as well as the odd 'sighter'. Later that month he had a second at Newbury
with the high class Ivan Denosovich FTO. His record since later 2005 is
1 from 8 with 6 places through to 2007 and no British debut last year.
In general in Ireland his debuts are not particularly strong and he is
a development trainer and a defeat FTO not seen as a problem. Because of
the Coolmore backing & reputation his horses consistently start shorter
than they should given his FTO readiness profile.
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Beethoven represents him here and in pure naming terms he ought
to be one of the better ones. He is by Coolmore first season sire Oratorio
whom they will want to be making a good impression for. The dam was a useful
8f winner in Ireland and the €260,000 price tag says he should be
a good type and one of the best specimens for his sire. On profile a good
type who might even be back for the Coventry Stakes but not wound up for
debut and vulnerable to a useful and more prepared type for the day. Ought
to place but probably find something a bit sharper, although not Trade
Secret.
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So, what might be a better debut to beat him? The Preview of - May
9th - summarised how a number of trainers go about choosing were to
send the best of their early 6f debuts. A big point to note was that none
of the 5 major stables summarised had lots of 6f debut winners in the May-June
period. They had debuts wins at specific times and often chose specific
races to send their best to. [Looking back at yesterday's Preview, the
Fratellino thing still niggling, the final sum-up for the Novice race noted
that the 5 trainers other than Alan McCabe were 1 from 22 with May Meeting
2yos. They are now 1 from 27 & McCabe has a better record on his own.]
Which makes the point that what you have with this sort of race is a lot
of solid newcomers on profile but none from soup-up for FTO types. So the
ones that are the best, in full career ability terms, will win if they
are 'ready enough'. If Beethoven is favourite it makes a nice Market to
get an ok price for whichever you might think is best. Getting to the course
& looking at them is the most reliable way yo solve this riddle otherwise
you are looking for general trends & clues.
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For example, the summary on Mark Johnston noted that he chose his debut
runners for this race carefully and they were usually for the Maktoum family.
Often they would prove to be Listed or Group class (Shaweel was 3rd for
him in 2008 for example) but not up to winning FTO. In the past they would
often blow out completely and finish last but a place has been more typical
in recent years. He runs Original Dancer here for a partnership
rather than the Maktoums. He is a full brother to juvenile Group 3 7f winner
Barbajuan who won over 5f on debut (beating Binnion Bay who is still kicking
about on the AW). On profile a solid type but an unlikely winner on the
day.
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Richard Hannon has a reputation for choosing his York debut runners carefully
and has not had one since 2005. Between 2002 to 2005 he had 7 and all made
the first four and included useful 2yos like Tacitus & Group winner
Kings Point. He normally targets his best 6f 2yos at the Newbury maiden
at the end of this week. He won that with Major Cadeaux and with, the disappointing,
Instalment for the Queen last year on their FTOs. Which makes you wonder
why Fine Sight, also owner bred by the Queen, is here rather than
Newbury? The vibes have been around that he is a good one and more precocious
than his pedigree would suggest for some time. The debuts for this owner
tend to be more forward as well and he had another for her in 2008 with
Free Agent. So, a Hannon York debut used to mean a good one that would
place FTO. The better debuts for the owner tend to win and his may be the
best she has. Sounds like the winner or the best opponent to Beethoven
if he is Coventry Stakes winning quality.
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Barry Hills targets the best 2yos he has to start in a batch in very late
May and early June and they often win on pure ability FTO. The exception
noted in the summary last week was he chooses his debuts for this Meeting
with some care. He had the third in this race with a debut runner in 2006
and Feared In Flight won in FTO in 2007. The filly Hasty runs here
for him and gain the vibes have been present for some time that she is
useful. She has a mixed pedigree with a full sibling a 7f winner. Overall,
as a filly against colts, a strong debut although coming up a little short
on profile.
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All of the other four have ok profiles and cost solid money apart form
the owner bred Almadaa. A strong run from any of them a possibility but
less of a complete story than Fine Sight, Beethoven & Hasty. Paul Cole
is another trainer who chooses York debuts carefully and has started some
good ones here. He is 3 from 19 with York debuts including two last year.
These days his debut winners all seem to be in the 5/1 to 8/1 range but
along with his non-winners as well. So, No Hubris makes some appeal
but difficult to find the angle to what sort of debut he might be.
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Ed Dunlop had a debut winner at the meeting for Hamdan Al Maktoum last
year and runs Almadaa here for him when brother Ahmed (or Maktoum
when he was still alive) normally has the rep in the race, often from Mark
Johnston. You wonder whether this one it was 'Family' chosen one. But,
on profile just a solid type and would need to be very high class to win
off an Ed Dunlop preparations. Two expensive ones for Northern stables
complete the cast. One is expected and Richard Fahey has run US purchases
like Flying Statesman in the race before and they have not proved
to be much good. Given the stable's debut uncertainty at present one to
pass over. Noel Wilson springs a surprise with 70,000 guinea breeze-up
purchase Kerolad. The stable has not run a 2yo who cost more than
20,000 previously. The odd juvenile winner the stable has go have included
a debut win for Stolt and the FTOs are usually competent (difficult to
judge with some much garbage previously involved). An interesting contender
but in a tough version of the race.
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In summary the race has produced Group winners Lord Shanakill, Shaweel,
Captain Gerrard, Leo, Marcus Andronicus & Abraham Lincoln in recent
years plus a sprinkling of Listed race victors. This year looks and above
average field with some long term significance. Beethoven should be a good
one but opposing the recent O'Brien debut runners (all his 2yo runners
come to that) in Britain has been he right call. Fine Sight & Hasty
come out best of the others but a win from lower down the profile not a
huge surprise.
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Meanwhile, on a quiet ridge in Wiltshire another good maiden takes place
that has produced a good share of Listed, plus the odd Group, winner. This
has usually been through Richard Hannon who has long targeted the race.
Last year he won the race with the useful Sun Ship. Who was that little
filly he ran who finished third after getting miles back on debut? Group
winner Pennys Gift. In 2007 he had the first & third with the filly
on debut proving the winner this time and won a Listed race STO (Sweepstake).
The colt was on STO and a 2yo non-winner. And, so it goes on. 2006 and
Listed winner Dazed And Amazed was third in it FTO (with a Listed winner
for David Elsworth behind). In 2005 it was Assertive running and finding
a slick 5f too quick. Go back a bit and Group 2 winner Galeota was beaten
in it for him.
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Hmm, how good must Palisades Park be? The trainer relies on this
newcomer and Richard Hughes is at this meeting rather then York where he
could ride Fine Sight. Perhaps this is for the general rides rather than
the 2yos as such. On pedigree this one is just an ok type by a sire that
gets regular useful sprint 2yos including for Hannon. You would be relying
on the trainer's choice for him being a good one and would he beat a good
opponent with experience?
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What about those with experience? Let us go back to Newbury in mid April
for a 5f maiden run on sopping wet ground after heavy morning rain. A big
field for a normally informative 5f maiden but difficult underfoot conditions
which many of the newcomers struggled with. Now, on firmer ground with
a solid pace you can often look back at results and see how the ability
levels were spread out before you on the day. Try looking at this - Result
- for the Windsor fillies race that Azif won from Diamond Laura. The column
labelled 'Wnr' shows which horses have won later and at what level
- maiden & auction in this case. The wins have come from the fillies
close up in the first 5 places. The 6th has been beaten in a strong race
and might develop to win over 6f+ and Stan Moore might find a seller to
win with Glen Lass from the midfielders. The 10th & 13th have been
thrashed since and you wouldn't hold out much hope for any in the back
half. Aside form Hannon's Sixpenny Moon because of respect for the way
that trainer finds some sort of race for so many of his early runners over
the whole season.
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Back at Newbury the soft ground, mixed pace, field spread across the course
and a liberal amount of youthful stupidity did not spread the horses out
properly. Look at the - Result
- and the only two winners to come out of the race finished 9th (too fizzy
and free running as with most Alan Jarvis FTOs) & 14th (Tubby &
Daft). The 3rd-4th, 6-8th & 10th (twice) have been beaten in a variety
of subsequent race types mostly on entirely different ground. Trying to
'Read' the result of this race like the Windsor race will not work. With
Existentialist & Diamond Laura (3rd at Windsor) you could 'feel from
how the race looked and was working out at the front that they were proper
favourites for the later races they won. The Newbury race is a lot more
tricky to interpret. You need to look at the results laid out like a table
to spot this because the summaries will not show it. For example, the 'Racing
Post' winner track will say the Newbury race has thrown up a couple of
winners and some places so a Pundit may well say it is 'working out' when
actually the majority of the field have been worked over at poor value
SPs.
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At the top of this preview you will find a full field Virtual Paddock for
Newbury laid out in finishing order. If you look through it you might start
to see odd clues as to why some horses have not fared well since and others
have. Looking at the 3rd with the filly Our Dream Queen how exciting is
she? Short, low slung although a positive for deep bodied in front. But,
she looks like she ran at Haydock, just ok but not a 3/1 favourite in a
big field against colts. Just read it as 'Form' = third in an important
maiden and you might be baffled why she failed. You can see the daftness
in the demeanour of Di Stefano & Angel Of Fashion. Both Di Stefano
& Lofthouse are just neat medium ones with a bit of build positive
but not better class maiden types to side with STO as a 'given'. Neither
were proven on the firmer ground they met when beaten STO either. If you
look at the picture of Stargaze it does not really show the mental immaturity
but it does show the lack of fitness lines around the buttock and loin
area. On the positive side although he is a shorter type he is a nice bulky
barrel that you could believe will tighten up.
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An interesting task with this sort of race is to look through the stragglers
to see where the later winners might come from. The same trainers tend
to regularly provide the later winners so Clan Piper & perhaps One
Cool Buck (a classic, leggy, narrow bodied One Cool Cat type & entirely
different from the more powerful Stargaze for example). Clan Piper may
run for Gosden over 6f soon & looks a strong medium one that ought
to get to OR80s at least and win his maiden.
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Where is all this getting us? Well, back at Salisbury two of the beaten
horses from the Newbury race are in the field with State Fair & Spanish
Acclaim. State Fair would be top of B2yoR's list of certain improvers from
that race for whom you can ignore the overall problems with how the race
is developing. On Paddock Review he was one of the best types. Well grown,
mature and carrying his size well. On the negative side a bit light bodied
and very mentally immature and fizzy on the day. As an aside if you are
going to make mistakes then B2yoR would rather go over the cliff with a
horse like this than a Fratellino (an entirely different type). In early
season in nippy 5f races a liking for bigger ones will get you into trouble
at times but this is a long term game. Having a nippy one beat you through
'Now' zippiness you can live with when it happens. Supporting a small one
that gets steamrollered by a bigger one who does not even know what it
is doing is much harder to deal with. It's just the wrong, long term, approach.
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State Fair confirmed himself as an unfocussed nuisance on the day by dropping
Jamie Spencer when offered to the stalls and then cantering around for
a bit dodging tacklers. In the race he got the usual Spencer hold-up stuff
and was making good progress when blocked and then got the usual Spencer
easing. He comes to the Salisbury race as unproved on soft and a fast 5f
but at least a horse with the size to support.
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Spanish Acclaim tried to press the pace at Newbury and faded badly. The
Picture shows him as a solid build although another one of those front-heavy
ones where you wonder whether the propulsion from behind is enough and
will work efficiently with the front half. The trainer usually runs his
best colt in that race and/or this one at Salisbury so a better effort
is very likely and we should see what he is capable of.
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Of the others with form Tiradito is the first STO runner of the
year for Marco Botti. Remember that he used to have the 2yos fired up for
debut in his first two years but now looks a 'Peak STO' handler and you
would have made a profit from backing all of his STOs in 2008. He also
tends to run close to his best 2yo as the first runner of the season. Which
means Tiradito ought to go close to winning this. But, he showed so little
FTO in hauling himself past some sub-seller garbage late on it will have
to be a real transformation here. He also did not seem to stretch out &
be an upright galloper rather than a full 5f type. Russian Rock
ran ok on debut having made an effort to attend a stiff pace and can improve
a little for a more restrained run but is trainer has yet to have a 2yo
winner and you suspect this one will not have enough improvement in a strong
field like this.
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Two interesting newcomers with Mick Channon's Kalam Daleel &
Amanda Perrett's Warning Song (for her father Guy Harwood). We are
now right at the start of the period when we should expect Channon
to show us 2-3 very strong debuts for horses who will go to Royal Ascot.
These are the type that get his limited number of debut wins. His last
runner in this race was the Group placed 2yo Ajigolo who won it
on his second run. This one has a good pedigree and by a favourite sire
for the trainer & owner thanks to Nahoodh. He really might be 'anything'.
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Mrs Perrett has a recognisable approach where she choose two usable 2yos
(usually in the OR75-85 range) who are ready early and runs them in mid
May. They often place FTO (as Kings General did in this race in 2007) and
tend to win STO. The third one the stable runs each year is then
a duff one that will not win. Warning Song has a perfectly believable pedigree
to produce a winning sprint 2yo and a competent kick-off here.
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In summary, as important a maiden as the York one overall and a
good field this year. Of those with previous runs preference for State
Fair to make a leap forward more than Tiradito and solid improvement from
SPanish Acclaim. Two strong newcomers who might beat State Fair if they
are very good with Palisades Park & Kalam Daleem. An almost certain
STO winner with Warning Song. Tiradito a test of how the Botti STOs will
go this year.
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