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The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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JUNE 24th SUMMING UP
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A bigger field than usual and probably a little more quality overall. Chaski
& Martian Glow made just mildly promising debuts without looking
better than average. Chaski was one of earliest debuts for her trainer
and was drawn wide and added being pretty clueless to that handicap to
never get into a similar fillies race at Lingfield. Her siblings have tended
to be small and precocious and trainer D. Loder wound a couple of them
up to rate 80+ despite their lack of size and scope to develop. Whether
this trainer will push quite as hard with 2yos is doubtful and she's likely
to reach just an average level on after a long break but without setting
a stiff level for the others to reach.
Martian Glow's trainer has won FTO with his two better 2yos and those that
have not won on debut have failed to win STO so far. The vibes before her
Leicester debut and the lack of response when pressed suggested just an
average type at best. She should make a little improvement but it would
probably have to be a below 70 rated race for her to contrive a win.
With those on STO not looking impressive the race would be open for a win
by a better class debut. This is the sort of race shape which ends with
Dance Sequence as a likely favourite. But, in the long run backing
M. Stoute runners on debut is a bad thing. He doesn't look for FTO wins
and the combination of his reputation, important owners, good pedigrees,
etc., lead to unrealistically short odds. Consider he has had just 4 debut
winners from the first 10 runners in the last three seasons (i.e., 4 from
30 overall). He has trained Dance Sequence's dam and three siblings and
only one of the four has won on debut. In 2003 he had the best filly in
the race and she finished second at odds-on. If she's useful+ she might
be one of his FTO winners but unless you know that and that she's professional
enough to perform FTO then it's usually worth looking for an alternative.
Of the other newcomers Smitten Kitten runs for another trainer who
rarely gets FTO winners. However, his record at Newmarket (both courses)
in the last 3 years mean that he's more likely to have a prominent debut
here than most other places. The market has been a reasonable indicator
of ability in 2005 so a shorter SP (8/1 or less) and later support would
be informative.
Ridgeway Cross was due to make a debut over 5f in late May but was
a non-runner. She now starts over 6f and if the preparation for a 5f start
hasn't been offset by the problem that has led to the delay then she could
be a better class of trainer debut.
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RACE QUALITY:
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Usually a fairly 'thin' race with few future winners in the last two seasons.
The overall moderate field has allowed FTO wins with just moderately competent
performances from non-FTO trainers.
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TRAINERS:
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B Meehan runs two - Madam Mac & Smitten Kitten - both on debut.
Smitten Kitten appears to be the first string with J. Fortune riding. He
only gets FTO winners with his best (usually competitive in Listed+ races)
2yos. In the last 2-3 seasons he has run a number of his better 2yos at
this course on debut and won a weak version of this race in 2004.
He has run six 2yos on debut at the course in 2005 with 1 win, 3 places
and 2 unplaced. Two of the four who placed have run in Listed races later.
The two runners that were unplaced have proved to be moderate. SP has been
a reasonable indicator of what is expected with the two best runners (Donna
Blini & Northern Empire) attracting late market support. The two unplaced
runners plus the moderate later winner Abbielou have started at 16/1+.
The current records of the main trainers int he field is summarised
in this Webpage. The
table indicates the following interesting points:-
S Suroor is well behind his 2004 schedule and his debut runners
have been less competitive.
M Stoute is roughly on schedule but has not introduced a strong
debut runner yet. The earliest debuts are usually a mix of types.
M Jarvis is showing his normal strategy with runners ready
to win on debut if they have ability.
E Dunlop has run more 2yos than usual and the debuts have been more
competitive. However, his two winners have been on STO which is his normal
'peak' target.
C Brittain has run the usual number of 2yos but has not had one
place yet. He normally only gets wins with his best 2yos and the 4 winners
by this point in 2003-4 have been Menhoubah, Tony James, Fox & Extreme
Beauty. His record so far in 2005 suggests he may not have a precocious
6f 2yo.
J Dunlop is close to a normal schedule with 9 debut runs and none
have run STO yet (which he targets for 'peak'). He has had one FTO winner
(at 16/1) in a moderate Newbury maiden but overall the debut runs have
been very varied.
M Channon has had a good season to date with an above average number
of winners and FTO wins. He is still in the period when he gets occasional
debut wins.
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SIRES:
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First season sires Galileo (My Amalie) & Mull Of Kintyre
(Heaven Can Wait).
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