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The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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JULY 2nd SUMMING UP
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In quality terms probably halfway between the 2003-4 editions of the race,
less good than 2003 but a little better than 2004. However none of the
group present a strong profile and with the weight allowances factored
in none stand out.
Spyglass has a profile that you can 'spin' either way depending
upon your view. On the positive side he was a rare debut placer for a major
trainer who doesn't mind educational FTO runs. He was clear of the third
placer and keeping on in a manner to suggest further improvement. In a
race full of non progressive types it is quite easy to imagine sticking
a '1' next to his debut '2' and everything looks tidy.
Taking the negative view he was second in a poor race run in a moderate
time. He was comfortably beaten by a known one-paced filly and it was a
good job he was clear of the third because those behind in that race are
going to struggle to win sellers. He looked a 50s type at the sales and
is owned by the trainer - why hasn't he passed him on? The trainer often
has his own debut runners, and cheaper sales buys in general, more competitive
FTO and they don't tend to show the same progression as the expensive ones
and Maktoum 'blue bloods'.
He's also moving onto a quirky track against an experienced group which
include enough pace setters and pressers to ensure a proper test. The last
two favourites (plus the 2002 maiden race favourite) have been beaten and
Caan & Grantley Adams have done enough to suggest they can set
a reasonable standard. In a race which might see a too fast pace Grantley
Adams' one paced plugging on might be an ok run style. Either way, Spyglass
is likely to be poor value at short odds (say 5/4 or less).
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RACE QUALITY:
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Race changed to an Auction race in 2003 having been an open maiden in 2002.
The two editions so far have been variable witht he first 6 in 2003 all
being winners later in the season and five outside selling company (four
were rated 70+ during the season).
In 2004 a poor group produced only one later winner in the beaten favourite
who probably did not act on the course.
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TRAINERS:
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E. O'Neill (Sky At Night) used to have his own small stable but
was appointed as private trainer in owner J. Fretwell's new, purpose built
stables in 2004. When the trainer had his own stables the better
2yos used to rate around 60-65 on debut and improve 14lbs STO.
He has developed an interesting record with his 2yo debuts in 2005. The
16 FTO runs have produced 5 wins (4/1, 8/1, 14/1, 2 x 16/1) and 2 places
(9/1 & 10/1). So blindly backing his debut runners would have produced
a big profit. However the FTO winners do not appear to have been 'wound
up' and have recorded ratings in the 60s. The SPs also show that for the
most part these have not been targeted strong debuts and runners are still
showing solid improvement STO.
The 5 debuts between June 15th-21st produced 3 wins and a second place
with the last of that batch a winner here. There has been a break of two
weeks until this debut.
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SIRES:
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First Season Sires :-
Arkadian Hero (Pertemps Heroine), 7 runners, 1 x 5f winner, none
rated 70+.
Beckett (Sky At Night), 13 runners, 1 x 7f seller winner, 2 placed
on debut, only 2 runners rated 60+.
Golden Snake (Crush On You), 3 runners, 1 x 7.5f seller winner,
none rated 60+.
Observatory (Spyglass), 18 runners, 4 winners (one each at 5f, 5.7f,
6f, 7f). One win and two placed debuts. No runner rated 70+.
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