British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - April 21st 
Races :-
  • 33: Pontefract 2:10, 5f Maiden Fillies' (5)
  • 34: Windsor 5:55, 5f Maiden (5)

  •   April 21st Summary : 
    • Two races today but only a seller at Catterick on Wednesday and a claimer at Beverley on Thursday until the weekend. The Pontefract fillies' maiden produced a 50/1 shock in 2007 with newcomer Loch Jipp winning for an unfashionable stable. With Barry Hills' Just A Dancer a non runner the 12 girls behind her managed a solitary success, in a claimer, through the whole of the rest of the season. Loch Jipp won the Hilary Needler and competed respectably in Group races and that 50/1 tag highlights how the "market will guide" stuff is pretty empty of useful information on many occasions.
    • Eight runners this year with seven newcomers and a profile which doesn't suggest it is any stronger than 2007 if we leave the unlikely conclusion of there being another Loch Jipp hidden away. The best of the newcomers on profile would be Anne Duffield's Camelot Communion who runs for the Middleham Park partnerships as does Pat Haslam's Asian Tale (worth a check which runs in the first colours for interest). The Duffield filly was a relatively expensive purchase and has a solid enough pedigree for an early 2yo. 
    • The trainer started 2007 by running a few duff ones and then introduced 4 season's winners in the period April 18th to May 8th. None of those 4 won on debut although all ran well enough at long odds. The trainer doesn't seem to get her runners as primed for debut as she did a few years ago but this is a weak race and a better runner could win off a so-so preparation.
    • Aside from Camelot Communion you come back to the one runner with previous experience as a solid contender. The trainer has a good third time out record with his 2yos and you can see that sort of pattern developing with Transcentral. For a cheap buy she is a usable size and build and ought to make a 60s rater of some sort which would have been good enough to win last year's edition of the race aside from Loch Jipp. But, she's got a wilful temperament and doesn't concentrate on racing and what the jockey wants her to do. 
    • She showed promise on debut but the pilot was clearly more interested in trying to get her to settle and found her very difficult to steer as she was still pulling hard in the final furlong (a positive in a soft ground race). STO at Leicester she was allowed her head a little more and led for 3 furlongs plus while carrying the field from the stands' rail across towards the far rail (hanging right). She got tired on the uphill finish as you would expect but ran a solid race. This is her third run and if she's now ready to calm down a bit and listen to the jockey and set a usable pace we ought to see the best of her. If she pulls too hard she might still hang on but on this uphill course she would set herself up for a bigger finisher (perhaps Camelot Communion) in the straight.
    • Another interesting maiden at Windsor with David Evans' Miss Chamanda returning to the course a week after a good debut behind what is probably a useful winner. A summary of her is in the off-race day review of April 20th. She's a good size and the trainer has had a solid 2yo season to date. She might get beaten by an above average newcomer but there isn't anything negative in her profile and she sets a good standard.
    • Klynch is interesting and is also covered in the 20th April week's review. He made his debut only 3 days ago on holding ground at Newbury. On looks he seemed a solid 75-85 sprinter and better than the seller winner Rough Rocks that Meehan ran for the same owners in the Newbury race in 2007. He was too wound up (2 handlers, gave trouble loading) to show his best and didn't appear to go on the ground at all and was left behind off a moderate pace. The fact he's running so quickly could be for a good reason - Meehan thinks he didn't get the chance to show what he's capable of a Newbury and worth another go here. Or, it could be for a negative reason in that he's another seller type like Rough Rocks and therefore expendable. The trainer, like Mick Channon, can be ruthless with these sorts and get rid of them. The fact that Robert Havlin is booked doesn't suggest the senior jockeys were anxious to get on him (nothing against Havlin as a rider, just fashionablity). 
    • But, he is a better type physically than Rough Rocks and ought to be a solid maiden winner. You can't be sure what you will get here because of the muffed debut so the profile is low but if he runs to his potential it wouldn't be a surprise to see him compete well.
    • It is worth a quick aside on Buckle Up who runs STO for Dean Ivory because it makes a good point about how with Paddock Review you can be affected by the quality of the overall field. On his debut at Kempton in the Class 4 race behind Asaint Needs Brass he looked a perfectly solid type in the context of that group aside from being less good than the winner. He also looked forward in condition. He ran a shocker because of not handling the track but the trainer's Dedante ran much better STO and you could have mild thoughts about him doing the same. But, if you look at the VP for the race, and it's a poor picture of him because it never got light at Kempton, he's just too narrow and light compared to the other three. That's before we have had a look at the better newcomers. So, a more competent performance expected but not up to the standards of the better types today.
    • Paul Cole has made a good start to the 2008 turf season with all ages of runners and this has shown up in pre-race with his horses much more forward in coat condition, fitness & wellbeing than the average. He hasn't had a debut winner but 3 of his 4 newcomers have placed and the other ran a good race to get to 6th in the Brocklesby after entirely bungling the first half of the race. Duke Of Aquitaine is an expensive US purchase with a sprint pedigree. The trainer will mix in some less good types in his early runners and ran the limited Abfabfong (cost a comparable 55,000gns) on debut in this race last year. So, if he's any good he should compete well and place and if he's a no-good then Paddock Review is the answer. The 'Market' wont tell you because Abfabfong started 5/1 3rd favourite last year while the best later winners (from good 2yo stables) were 12/1 and 8/1.
    • Richard Hannon has finally run some typical debuts after wins with his first three runners up to Bonnie Charlie beating Miss Chamanda here last week. He again runs two with Hughes on Heliodor and Moore on Buddy Marvellous (another son of Redback and the 'Rules' about Hannon buying his yearlings applying). Until last year either jockey might end up on the better 2yo but with Moore now committed to Stoute, and Hughes released from his K. Abdulla retainer, you would think that Hughes would have the pick. It worked that way last week with Hughes on the winner and Moore on the bumbling son of Redback in 8th. Both have just okish pedigrees and the market may be some help if Heliodor is being supported at 4/1 or less. If one, presumably Heliodor, is an above average 2yo he might have too much pace for the leggy filly late in the race but on balance more likely to be a 2nd-4th first run outcome.
    • The other newcomer to mention would be John Best's Flash Man's Papers. The trainer doesn't go in for debut wins and his debuts after the early season runarounds can be pretty underdone. He had a debut winner last week with what looked a useful prospect in Mullionmileanhour (not particularly supported in the Market) and you would suspect that was untypical and probably a plus mark for the quality of the horse. His runner here is the first for the Australian sprinter Exceed And Excel who has a large European crop to represent him this year so it will be useful to see what types he gets. Again, on balance, more of a solid debut and one to assess rather than expecting a win.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Striding Edge (WR Muir, 5-6f, trainer's record overall rests on longer priced winners after mid season. Earlier debuts less competent.)

    ~ PFCT 2:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    2 CAMELOT COMMUNION [32] - 1 25
    8 TRANSCENTRAL [32] - 2 23 2 3 17
    1 ASIAN TALE [19] - 1 33
    3 CLUMBER PLACE [17] - 1 21
    4 ORPHANED ANNIE [10] - 1
    5 ROSABEE [8] - 1 20
    6 SALE OR RETURN [8] - 1 22
    7 SCOTCH AND SODA [6] - 1 5

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    ~ WDSR 5:55 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    9 MISS CHAMANDA [41] +5 2 34 1 34 21
    3 DUKE OF AQUITAINE [35] - 1 30
    5 HELIODOR [34] - 1 29
    6 KLYNCH [26] - 2 -18 1 -18 28
    2 BUDDY MARVELLOUS [24] - 1 29
    4 FLASH MANS PAPERS [24] - 1 31
    1 BUCKLE UP [17] - 2 -10 1 -10 13
    7 STRIDING EDGE [17] - 1 27
    10 SHARP DISCOVERY [5] +5 2 -23 1 -23 2
    8 BLUSHING MAID [2] +5 1
    11 THE BEAT IS ON [0] +5 1 2

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