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Windsor 5:55 (4 Horses)
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Wolverhampton 2:10 (5)
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Wolverhampton 2:40 (4)
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Yarmouth 2:30 (4)
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The W'ton 2:10 VP is interesting to review. This is a low quality auction
race for fillies and the lack of size and quality shows. Caressing &
Lislin are typical of the small, neatish types that end up here though
lack of power and range. Transcentral is their size but with a bit more
muscle. But, she's looked too wilful to show her best at finish a race
off properly in three starts. If she could be professional she might be
a bit better than they are. Premier Krug is a bit taller but narrow and
lacking power through that. You want them to retain the breadth and depth
as they get taller to be better than the rabbits. Meydan Groove got supported
like a winner in a slightly better version of this type of Auction on debut.
She always looked too mentally behind the pace that day to believe she
could make that stick. Compare her to the Caressing and Lislin 'type' and
she's abit bigger and with a bit more power. But she scores below average
for neatness in terms of how she's out together. Front not matched to back,
leggy for her body length and so on. The picture is saying that this set-up
is going to 'work' fully efficiently. And, in a package, you there have
a demonstration of how with Paddock Review in a low quality race like this
you are trying to balance the positives & negatives of Size (height
& frame), Build (muscular power), Neatness (how well the parts fit
together) and how those three integrate to produce a level of expressed
athleticism and efficiency.
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Redcar :-
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Approved (MW Easterby, Long Shot), Low quality profile and
in a tough looking race. A 5th to midfield finish would be a good effort)
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Drachenfels (KA Ryan, 5f), trainer now in typical form with debuts
and the likely later winners will make the 3rd to 5th range and lacking
the final furlong finish to win. In this period the better types can still
win FTO through ability. Last four debuts on Fri-Sat = Bragging Rights
(JC Fretwell owned) backed to favourite against 4 other newcomers and 3rd
in a rough race with a stop-start pace. Looked a better type. Undaunted
Affair a strong closing 3rd at 14/1 in a race with a 'Newmarket Form' favourite
(scrambled home) & a 'Gosden' newcomer to push all the other prices
out. Runner held up and hence the better late race move although probably
wasn't wound up and the trainer probably surprised by the level of debut
form needed to be competitive to win. Coleorton Choice 5th of 11 with topweight
in a Ripon auction. Looked tubby FTO and a development run and a typical
outcome for an ordinary one. Sweet Smile 4th over 6f at Haydock at 6/1
but the wrong side of a 5 length gap and best-of-the-rest.
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Which means Drachenfels would need to have a bit of extra ability to win
rather than make a 'nice intro'. He cost 52,000gns and expensive for sire
Mind Games who has dropped into being unfashionable and little used despite
having proved he can produce good 2yos. The dam has produced three juveniles
who won at 5f including last year's debut winner Reel Gift (...in a very
poor race) . So, a good profile and the 'Market' might be some help
if you took those last 4 debuts as a template. A nice intro might be around
the 4/1 mark or longer and 7/2 and in with some positive support a (real)
good indicator.
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Verinco (B Smart, March to May), trainer Smart has improved his
record since he moved North and has his strongest stable of 2yos yet in
terms of numbers and 'expense' to assemble. Given that he got competitive
debuts in this period through preparation in previous years anyway it shouldn't
be a surprise to see this better material win some FTO attempts this year.
He's 2 from 4 so far and Snow Bay was a notable sufferer in the rough race
at Hamilton on Friday. You couldn't say definitely he would have beaten
Fathey in the late race sprint but get nearly brought down, as that rival
hung across you to the rails, will normally remove the winning chance.
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Like Drachenfels, Verinco is by a good sire of sprint 2yos out of a mare
who has already produced four 2yo winners of various types including just
above average sprinters. Another strong contender.
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The Redcar race has an interesting shape because Sloop Johnb
is likely to be favourite and put some value into the newcomers SPs. It
is relatively easy to be negative about the quality of his debut second
and he has a below average sales report. We have seen in recent days what
Richard Fahey 5f debuts can do (Deadly Encounter & Fathey) ans Sloop
Johnb didn't go through the race like they did. So, opposable and some
good material to go with. On purely 'form' terms you could see Asian
Tale doing better than the Fahey colt having finished in front of Rosabee
first time as Sloop Johnb did. THe Haslam filly had to make ground against
a late race sprint of a sauntering pace and made a pretty good job of it.
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Wolverhampton 2:10 :-
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Hip Hip Hooray (ES McMahon, All). Trainer 1 from 2 so far and this
a cheaper purchase for owner John Fretwell who supplied the other two runners
to date. The winner was with a filly in a limited quality race. This appears
to have more depth than that one. His first debut finished an ok second
and is top of the profile for the Windsor Novice race today on his secon
douting.
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