| April 1st |
The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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April 1st SUMMING UP
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Although this is an auction race there is a relatively narrow band of sales
prices represented and therefore the weight range of only 6lbs from top
to bottom is very similar to a normal open maiden.
In profile the race looks low quality with probably only minor winners
among the field. It is not obvious that there is a better class runner
who is usually within the field in this group.
For example if Becktara and Ryedale Ovation are below expectations on debut
it could be a very open race at a low level rating in the 50s. However,
the combination of sales review and trainer methods suggest that Shaydreambeliever
should set solid standard which most of the lesser runners should not be
able to reach.
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RACE QUALITY:
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The race is usually of low quality and made up of later minor winners at
best (rating between 55-69) in the season.
In each season there are usually one or two better types (capable of rating
75+ during the season) in the race who manage to finish in front of the
smaller and more limited types. For example Dario Gee Gee (Persian Rock
2nd) in 2004, Mac The Knife in 2003. 2002 was an interesting race with
El Coto in 2nd, Moon At Midnight in 4th & Cumbrian Venture in 5th but
all beaten by a very ready PD Evans runner at 33/1 (the trainer looked
as surprised as anyone afterwards) on softish ground. Artie won in 2001.
So the early season means that the better types (if there are any) will
be dragged close to the level of the limited & ready types but usually
find a way to beat them although with the occasional 'turn-up' when the
conditions are right (e.g. softer going).
The Brocklesby two days before this race was unusual in that the ready,
early runners who had already had a race dominated and made up the first
three places. That race may not have had a better debut runner in it (unless
River Kintyre shows it to be him) but the later placing of this Doncaster
meeting certainly had an effect. However, only one runner has had a previous
run in this field and that was a moderate effort.
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TRAINERS:
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A number of 'regulars' are represented.
K Ryan had the 14/1 winner in 2004 with a useful runner (rated 85+
in the season) and had a poor runner well beaten at 10/1 in 2002.
PD Evans has had at least one runner in each season 2002-4. He had
the surprise 33/1 winner in 2002 with a far worse type well beaten at 20/1
in the same race. He had two later minor winners in the race in 2003 with
one finishing 4th (20/1) and the other well beaten (66/1). He had a very
poor runner finish last in 2004.
WGM Turner has had a runner in each of the last three races. He
had an AW seller winner finish 6th at 4/1 in 2002, a perpetual placer finish
4th at 10/1 in 2003 and a claimer winner finish 6th at 18/1 in 2004.
TD Easterby returns to the race after two years break but had introduced
two useful types n the race in 2001 and 2002 with Artie and Cumbrian Venture.
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SIRES:
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First season sires with runners are Beckett
(Becktara & Ullah Pendragon), City
On A Hill (Dusty City) and Mull
Of Kintyre (Mullzima).
These will be Beckett's first runners whereas Mull Of Kintyre
has already made a promising start with his 4 runners.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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5 of the runners were reviewed at the sales and fall into a narrow band
of ratings in line with the normal quality of the race.
Beautiful South was rated an 'at best' 71 with a slightly below average
chance of being competitive at 2yo. However he was seen as an ok prospect
for a minor winner especially given the 3.6k gns price. He is with a new
trainer and therefore there is a lack of information on his approach to
debut runs.
Shaydreambeliever was rated 67 with an average chance of being a competitive
2yo.
Ryedale Ovations was rated 66.
The History Man and Dusty City were rated 64 but with The History Man seen
as the better prospect to be competitive at 2yo at this level.
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