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The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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APRIL 17th SUMMING UP
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A similar race in profile to 2004 with no runner with strong form on a
previous run. Unless one of the fillies is more useful than her profile
would suggest it may well be an open race and require a rating only between
55-62 to win.
This low level would mean that a number of fillies could reach the 'winning'
rating range including unlikely candidates like Beautiful South. It's even
the type of race that T Easterby could get a debut winner in (along with
a blue moon) if Sambertini is a 75+ filly.
Hasty Passion is likely to be competent and set the standard but it would
be disappointing if one or two of those on debut could not beat the level
of form she has shown so far.
Penny Whisper who represents the trainer who had the 14/1 debut winner
in 2004 has her limitations on sales review but should be competent to
run to the high 50s here.
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RACE QUALITY:
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On average the race requires a performance between 65 to 75 to win depending
upon the strength of the runners with previous form. The Brocklesby second
won by 6 lengths in 2003 for example but 2004 saw a race with no strong
previous form fought out by newcomers at 14/1 and 16/1.
There is usually a solid number of later minor winners amongst the field
and occasionally average or better winners (Milly Waters in 2003 and Listed
placed Mary Read in 2004).
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TRAINERS:
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M Dods is not a particularly fashionable trainer and therefore his
2yos tend to start at long SPs on debut. However he usually has his runners
ready to rate close to their best on debut and the better ones can win
weaker northern races FTO. He had a 100/1 debut winner in 2003 and the
14/1 debut winner of this race in 2004. He runs Penny Whisper.
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SIRES:
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First season sires Bertolini
(Sambertini) & Mull Of Kintyre
(Fancy You) have runners.
American sire Afternoon
Deelites (Dangermouse) has his first UK 2yo runner. He is based in
Louisiana and probably scrapes into the top 75 sires in the US on some
lists.
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SALES REVIEWS:
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Beautiful South was reviewed at the sales and was smallish but with
ok build. She looked as if she would need 6f+ and lack the pace for a
fast 5f but might be a minor winner rating between 65-70.
Hasty Passion was reviewed at the sales and looked likely to be
able to rate 60-65 at best with a slightly below average chance of being
a competitive 2yo at her level. Noted as being rather narrow.
Penny Whisper was small and lightly built at the sales (smaller
than either Beautiful South & Hasty Passion for example). She was neat
enough and unremarkable otherwise but always likely to be limited by her
size.
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