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The 2002-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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JUNE 15th SUMMING UP
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For those of you that have read the Coventry and Queen Mary summaries you
will recognise the plot for the story. The Royal Meeting 2yo races bring
together lots of horses with '1s' against their names and lots of apparently
useful types. But what the races demonstrate in a visible manner is the
amount of difference there is between a 110, 100, 90 & 80 rateable
horse. [That's one of the reasons the profile tables are presented the
way they are to try to capture some of that visual significance].
So, what we are looking for are the 100+ horses who will demonstrate their
unusual level of ability and win by clear margins. We've already seen Red
Clubs and Flashy Wings do that with the best of the 90+ types 3L and more
behind.
In an average year there will probably only be one superior runner and
none in a below average one. Thinking about the Queen Mary if Flashy Wings
hadn't run Salut D'Amour would have been a narrow winner. If you then rate
her 100+ because you have to rate the Queen Mary winner at that level then
Flashy Wings will end up at a ridiculously high rating when she beats them
later.
Which brings us to this race and the profile suggests we've got a competitive
event between a group of 6 useful 2yos but none obviously superior. It
wouldn't be a major surprise if any of the top six manage to wangle a win,
perhaps helped by a pace duel and some patchy, softer going.
Classic Encounter & Sunrise Safari look committed front
runners and Masta Plasta has usually raced prominently. Strike
Up The Band, Green Park & Ajigolo have shown their
best form being held up for a finish against the pacemakers.
In summary, Classic Encounter looks a smaller, neat and very ready 2yo
and likely to try to run the finish out of the others. His set up and action
suggest faster ground will show him to his best and he's unlikely to get
that here. He's going to take some getting back but something is likely
to be able to close on him.
Green Park managed to get past Classic Encounter on rain softened ground
at Windsor in a manner that he couldn't have done on GF at Newmarket. He
seems to be the best 5f colt the trainer has but his overall group is not
strong. He should be closing at the finish but he appeals more as a 6f
type and others will probably have more all around 5f pace.
Sunrise Safari has solid form from his Sandown run and showed surprising
speed to go clear entering the final furlong (although possibly on a 'magic
carpet' next to the rail). He's faded in the last half furlong in his last
two races and if he gets into a contest for the lead it would probably
be the same story again. He looked hard trained at Sandown and not with
a lot of improvement.
Ajigolo has some potential to be a better winner but has run two bad races
either side of a very taking performance when easily beating Sunrise Safari
on fast ground at Salisbury. He has excuses for the first bad run but the
second looked a tame effort.
Which leaves two solid contenders. Strike Up The Band has shown an unusual
ability to produce a short period of quickening that gains 2-3L quickly
and then he maintains a good pace afterwards. Against moderate runners
on debut this made him look a world beater. STO when slightly hindered
by the draw it looked quite taking against better types but it's limits
were highlighted by the bigger filly Ooh Aah Camara. At Goodwood in just
an average Listed race against 6f types it made him 3L in mid-race and
would have been more impressive if used in the last furlong. If the pacesetters
can't run that finish out of him he's got a weapon that will get him past
them.
Which leaves Masta Plasta just on top of the profile somewhat by default.
We haven't seen enough of what he can do to discount the possibility that
he's superior. We know he has finished strongly on two stiff tracks after
travelling well. He's probably also faster than Pacific Pride who had the
Coventry field, bar Red Clubs, stretched beyond their limits. He will presumably
settle off the pace in this race and on what he's shown has solid prospects
of being the best of the closers.
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RACE QUALITY:
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The race reverts to Group 3 status after a single season at Group 2 level
which produced an average race and none of the runners successful in a
later British black type race.
In the last three years only Nevisian Lad in 2003 who won a Group 3 race
has managed to win at Listed level or above later in the year. The race
has been a mid season 'decider' between the best of the early season 5f
2yos but with little longer term significance. A performance between 92-105
is normally required depending upon the strength of the race.
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TRAINERS:
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As with the Queen Mary the list of trainers with no runner is informative.
AP O'Brien, M. Johnston, J Gosden, B. Meehan, S. Suroor/D. Loder, M. Bell
& J. Noseda are unrepresented and have supplied 8 of the last 9 placed
horses. The only trainer's with runners who have made the first 6 in the
last three years at R. Hannon & M Channon (numbers 1 and 4 in the 2004
list for number of 2yos runners).
R Hannon has had a quiet season so far and runs Green Park who has
been entered in previous Listed races but the stable's Green Pride or Gamble
In Gold have run instead. Green Park won the Class 2 conditions race at
Windsor (with Classic Encounter 3rd) in May which the last three winners
of the race have run in. In 2002 the trainer won the Windsor race with
Baron's Pit who won this race next time having not run in a Listed race
previously.
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SIRES:
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First season sire Mozart
(Sunrise Safari) has a runner but has not had a 5f winner yet.
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| PICTURES: |
Pictures of Ajigolo, Classic Encounter, Green Park, Sands Crooner &
Sunrise Safari as a 'Virtual Paddock'.
And for comparison the following Virtual
Paddock contains pictures of the last three winners of the race.
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