BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report
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002: Kempton : 5f (5 = D2) Maiden

PAGE INDEX

1. RACE SUMMARY

a) Performance Comparison
 

  • The following table gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. A box in green denotes a runner that exceeded pre-race expectations and in pink a runner that performed notably below expectations. In either case it is useful to try to identify the reason for the difference.

    •  
    Makabul The London Gang Twinned Godfrey Street P. Excellence Puskas Tick The Box Cumbrae Lionaire At The Bar
    [Estimate] Post-race 78 63 61 59 42 45 30 27 26 0
    [Prolfile] Pre-race 64 63 41 60 53 64 53 25 55 39
     
    MAKABUL Performed above profile and confirmed the good view formed of him at the DSL sales. He is a bigger and better type than Phantom Whisper who won for the trainer last week on debut and was fitter than that runner. He fits the profile of a useful+ type that the trainer will try to target an early season Debut win with. 
    TWINNED Performed well above expectations both in mental readiness and final performance. He was noted in paddock review as being a better type than the trainer normally has, for example being bigger and more athletic than Godfrey Street. A performance of this type on debut by a runner for this trainer is a very good sign that this is a 70+ winner and paddock review supports that view.
    PUSKAS Performed well below expectations. The obvious reason for this was his inexperience, slow break, slow pick up and giving the impression he hasn't grasped what being a 'racehorse' means yet. Behind this he was slightly disappointing in Paddock Review being just medium sized and neat and not obviously superior. He was fit enough to perform better and the overall lack of zip was not good.
    TICK THE BOX The pre-race profile of 53 was considered the best he could perform to if fit and showing acceptable professionalism. If you look at the picture of him you will see that he is heavily built and just average fitness, he didn't look ready to 'carry his weight' today. He added a mentally inexperienced run to compound this and produce a low rating. It is interesting to think about what the trainer is trying to achieve with the regular very poor debut runs he has early in each season. This one wasn't ready to compete today (despite the 13/2 SP) and you could speculate he was here for other reasons = e.g. perhaps he's a handful at home, diffiult to get fit, etc. It will be interesting to see how quickly he runs again.
    LIONAIRE Looked a similar type to The London Gang for the same trainer and started at a shorter SP. In paddock review a slightly better physical type than The London Gang and slightly fitter. A little surprising that both of the trainer's runners didn't get into the race earlier with The London Gang getting second by running on through faders late in the race. The jockey isn't an obvious choice to get a grip on a 2yo in a sprint race but a poor run anyway. On physical type he ought to be similar to The London Gang.
    AT THE BAR Was the expected small and limited type and fit enough on debut. Bandaged in front. Performed poorly but not of any real interest.

    b) Future Relevance

  • An interesting group with some surprises and some slight disappointments. The main point to consider is how far Makabul can progress. On trainer methods and his "reminds me of Lord Kintyre" quote he thinks he's capable of 90+ and probably 100+ rating. On Paddock review that is questionable although he should rate to around 90 early to mid season but possible not progress through the season
  • Twinned should be relatively easy to find a 70+ rating race for given normal improvement from the trainer's debut runs.
  • The London Gang, Lionaire and Godfrey Street have prospects to be early season minor winners but without long term development.
  • Puskas did not look superior and likely to be a winner rating in the 80s once he learns.
  • Of the others Tick The Box is difficult to sum up and probably best to see how long it is before we see him run again. A small word for Cumbrae is also necessary, for a 2.5k gns purchase, with a small trainer, who started at 50/1 and finished near the back he's got a bit more about him than that. He was a handful and 'masculine' but he has some build and carries himself acceptably. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him gelded and if he where with a better known 2yo trainer you would think they could get him competitive at a low level.


    • 2. PADDOCK REVIEW SUMMARY
    a)RATINGS & SUM-UPS
    The table gives the Paddock Review rating for the runners. The descriptions to the ratings is the same as those given in the 2004 Sales rating section.
    Name Rating Sum-up
    Makabul
    80
    		 Probably second fittest in the group. Tall and carries well but slightly narrow and lacks a bit of build. His length suggest he will be better at 6f and he shows good range with movement in front. Should be able to rate 85-90 over 6f early to mid-season but doubt that he is superior and will need to muscle up well to progress from mid season.
    Puskas
    76
    		 Fit enough to perform on debut. Just a neat, medium size type and lacking any great scope. Slightly weak mover behind. The name 'Simply The Guest' kept popping up when looking at him. Trainer should get him to win rating into the 80s (at some level) but unlikely to be the superior, development type his profile suggested was a possibility.
    Tick The Box
    74?
    		 Average fitness. Slightly compact and notably deep and heavily built. Needs to develop but ought to rate into 70s if develops well. However slight niggles in that the strength and build might be overdone and he didn't show the length or athleticism of some of the similar 'big lads' that the trainer has (think Makulu, Queenstown, Chinkara, etc). A difficult type to assess.
    Twinned
    72
    		 Smallish to medium size and slightly underpowered but had something about him. This was probably the way he held himself and good movement in front. Average fitness on debut and should progress to 70+ rating.
    Godfrey Street
    69
    		 Didn't seem to have developed from the sales and rating dropped slightly. Slightly compact and weak in some areas. A minor early season winner rating around 70 on review.
    Lionaire
    67
    		 Slightly tall, shallow, leggy and early type that the trainer probably has made somewhere. Fittest in the group and some signs of being worked up (fully unsheathed for e.g.). Slightly bigger and better built than The London Gang. Trainer ought to be able to get him to rate in the 60s early.
    The London Gang
    66
    		 Similar type to Lionaire although slightly smaller and lighter. Had some sprinter 'snap' in movement behind. Ought to be able to rate around 70 early season but build suggests he wont develop.
    Cumbrae
    64
    		 A surprise, not your typical 2.5k gns buy. Ok size and build and carries himself acceptably. Looked a handful but has prospects to develop. Has he developed from the sales or does he have some physical niggle that caused the low sales price?
    Par Excellence
    58
    		 Reviewed at Lingfield on March 19th. Fitter here but otherwise nothing to amend the view formed earlier.
    At The Bar
    54
    		 Typical small type with a bit of build that the trainer often has. Fit enough on debut and bandaged in Front. Movement behind not quite right. A 50s sprint type at best.
    b) SIZE AND BUILD
    A better group than ran in the valuable Lingfield conditions race that was the first 2yo race of the season.
     
    Size
    Build
    Makabul Tick The Box
    Cumbrae, Godfrey Street, Lionaire, Puskas, Tick The Box Cumbrae
    The London Gang, Twinned, Par Excellence Godfrey Street, Makabul, Puskas, Twinned
    At The Bar At The Bar, Lionaire, The London Gang, Par Excellence

    c) FITNESS
    The table below shows the runners ranked by their fitness on the day:

    Fitness
    Lionaire 93.5
    Makabul (1st), The London Gang (2nd), At The Bar 93
     Godfrey Street, Par Excellence, Puskas 92
    Tick The Box, Twinned (3rd) 91.5
    Cumbrae 91
     
    d) PICTURES
    Pictures (variable quality) are available, and will be linked from the runner's individual summary pages, of the following runners :

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