British 2yo Racing - 2005 Season Race Profile - Race 001 : Lingfield 1:50 March 19th

Note:- Bold numbers in the grey boxes are the scale for the estimated rating level for this race. The position of the horse's name indicates the expected performance level as assessed before the race. The table can be read from left to right as the expected finishing positions of the runners.

UPDATE 17th March: Final Declarations
Colts (carry 8-12): Kung Hei, Phantom Whisper & Slack Willy Hilly
Fillies (carry 8-7): Angelina Bankes, Blue Minx, Danjet, Emily's Will, Fashion Chic, Par Excellence, Tour D'Amour

Pre-race Summary : March 17th

SUMMING UP: Another low quality renewal probably featuring a few minor winners during the season. DANJET represents the best overall profile so long as the jockey (J. P. Spencer) can remember to get her to break quickly and race prominently (no 'waiting' at the back tactics, please). The better of the W.G.M. Turner pair should place and while preferring PAR EXCELLENCE on profile, the draw may assist ANGELINA BANKES to show up well. Only KUNG HEI (especially if backed to a short SP, say 9/2 region) and possibly SLACK WILLY HILLY appeal as other possible winners. [Update 18th March - On further review and given the low quality of the race and K. Fallon then EMILY'S WILL is included in the possible outside winners. DANJET remains preferred, the better W. G. M. Turner runner should place and the third placer should come from (in order) EMILY'S WILL, KUNG HEI (if backed) and SLACK WILLY HILLY].

2003 and 2004 results are at the bottom of this page for comparison.

Note that a number of declared runners were probably balloted out because of the 10 runner safety limit for the 5f course.

The profile table above shows the declared runners in CAPITAL letters and the other original entries in lowercase and smaller font.

RACE QUALITY: Note that six of the seven entries which had a profile to run to a rating over 60 for the race have not made the final runners. This is disappointing and the race may only need a performance in the 50s to win and brings in a wider range of possible winners. For the third year in a row the race looks like proving a poor use of £15,000+ of prize money.

TRAINERS: W.G.M Turner and I.A. Wood have won the lottery and both have got two runners from two entries. B.R. Millman seems slightly unlucky with one runner from four entries with his lowest rated entry by profile.

Of the eight trainers represented the following have the profile to be able to produce winners of a competitive early race on debut - P.D. Evans, W.G.M. Turner and L. Stubbs and they provide the three highest rated runners by profile. Of the others B.R. Millman, R. Hannon and possibly M. J. Wallace could get an early debut winner with an above average runner but their runners seem unlikely to fit this criterion. Note that the poor quality of the race means that a below average runner could win FTO.

W.G.M. Turner has senior jockey A.Daly on Angelina Bankes and 5lb apprentice C. Haddon on Par Excellence. Since A. Daly usually rides the better runners for the owner breeder of Angelina Bankes and C. Haddon was entrusted with riding a number of the stable's winners in 2004 it is not conclusive that either is the 'stable preferred' on this evidence.

DRAW : Past runnings of the race have shown that professionalism at the stalls and prominent running style have been most important (particularly in 2004 with a strong tailwind which seems likely to be the case this year as well). Two of the top three runners by profile have good draws and should be able to run to their full potential (Danjet and King Hei). Par Excellence is in stall 8 and will need to make a quick break to get a position. In a mixed field and from probably the best stable represented at preparing early 2yos to break quickly she ought to be able to get into the first four by the time they reach the first bend.

SALES REVIEWS: Only two of the runners were reviewed at the sales and the review for Phantom Whisper was negative and she is unlikely to be competitive even in this race. Slack Willy Hilly was a small, heavy, compact yearling in the classic mould that R. Hannon often buys as an early 2yo (think of Canton in 2004 for e.g.). Rated 62 at the sales and that is acceptable for a race of this quality but the trainer's early debut runner's need to be slightly above average to win on debut this early. Again, think of Canton beaten on debut in 2004.

FUTURE RELEVANCE: In 2003 and 2004 this race produced only 3 subsequent winners from the placed horses (neither winner won again), of which only one rated over 80 during the season and most were minor winners. The quality of the 2005 group is unlikely to be better and in watching the race you are probably looking for early season minor winners.

In 2004 the 15 horses that were entered but did not run in this race included only 3 later winners of which one rated over 70. All 15 made their debuts in the first three weeks of the season and one won on debut (at Lingfield beating four others who were entered for the earlier race). Four ran in the Brocklesby with only the W.G.M Turner runner making an impact and winning a minor race later. On profile the 16 entries excluded from this race should include a better group and should produce more than the 3 subsequent winners in 2004.

Entries:
Angelina Bankes, At The Bar, Azygous, Blue Minx, Casablanca Minx, City For Conquest, Compton Lad, Cumbrae, Danjet, Emily's Will, Fashion Chic, Godfrey Street, In Hope, Kung Hei, Lionaire, Lyrical Blues, Makabul, Par Excellence, Pertemps Heroine, Phantom Whisper, Shaydreambeliever, Slack Willy Hilly, Tafilah, The London Gang, Tour D'Amour, Wovoka.

March 15th - Entry Stage:

In 2003-4 the race had very high prize money and higher status as a Class B/C race and appears to have been downgraded again to class D1 this year (given the Race Class changes during 2004 this may not be a downgrade). A downgrade would be sensible because the previous runnings did not seem to be a good use of the prize money fund.
[2003-4 results]. The first two runnings of this race have been contested by mostly moderate runners. Only the 2004 winner Bunditten (who later finished 4th in the Gp3 Queen Mary) could be considered to be up to the previous status. This problem was made worse because the safety limit of the 5f course is only 10 runners. In both previous seasons potentially better runners have been balloted out because there were too many declarations.
This 'lottery' with getting a run caused complaints from trainers and has probably encouraged some trainers to make multiple entries in 2005 in the hope of getting a run (and possibly some good money for a poor runner).
Previous Performance: The previous two runnings of the race have needed a performance in the low 60s to win. The two winners ran contrasting races with Western Roots coming through late to pick off the smaller front runners and Bunditten leading throughout the next year. However in both races those racing prominently have fared best with little change in relative positions (other than Western Roots). Professionalism at the stalls is more important than stalls draw.
Trainers: The majority of trainers with entries this season have had similar early entries in the last two seasons. The notable exception is H. Sweeting but her two cheap purchases entered are very unlikely to be competitive. The northern trainer R. Fahey is more interesting because, although he has occasional early runners, they are invariably in the north.
Multiple Entries: B. R. Millman who targets early wins with his best runner(s) has 4 entries who are likely to be a wide range of abilities; P. D. Evans had three entries and has had a placer in the race before; R. Hannon has two entries and his first entries for the race; J. S. Moore has 2 entries and has had runners placed 5th in both previous runnings; newish trainer H. Sweeting has 2 entries; W. G. M. Turner has two entries and it would be a surprise if he had not had given his strategy; I. A. Wood has two entries and has had a runner in the race before.
Sales Reviews: 9 of the 26 entries were reviewed at the sales. The ratings given to this group of 9 are in line with the normal quality of this race and none got above average ratings. Godfrey Street and Makabul received the highest ratings and have the profile to be able to produce the expected 60s rating for the race and to prove capable of 70+ form later. Of the others Lyrical Blues, Shaydreambeliever and possibly Azygous have prospects of being competitive at the 56-60 mark for the race.
Sires: The following First Season Sires (FSS) are represented - Arkadian Hero, City On A Hill, Fruits Of Love, Observatory and Primo Valentino. Of these Fruits Of Love lacks an obvious early 2yo profile and Arkadian Hero and City On A Hill both had 2yo records which were better than their pedigrees would suggest.
Summary on entries: The quality of the entries is similar to the previous years and the majority will not be able to rate over 70 during the season on profile. There does not appear to be a runner of Bunditten's quality and the group are likely to produce a number of early season winners (between 5-9 of them) with probably only 2-3 proving capable of 70+ rating from mid-season onwards. Identifying these two groups from the 26 entries will be a key part of the Paddock Review as they make their debuts (10 of them in this race).

Lingfield 5f (AW) Juvenile Conditions: Race Results from 2003 and 2004

Note 1: Horse with * denote winner later in the season. Neither race winner won again during the season.
Note 2: Trainers highlighted in cream have entries in the 2005 race.

2004 Draw 2003 Draw

1 Bunditten 9/2 A. Reid 4 1 Western Roots 10/3 P. Cole 4

2 I'm Aimee 33/1 P. D Evans 6 2 Three Welshmen 9/2 B. R Millman 3

3 Windy Prospect * 4/1jf P. Blockley 8 3 Sir Ernest * 6/1 M Polglase 1

4 Cubic Confessions 13/2 J Osborne 7 4 Kuringai * 3/1f B. Duke 2

5 Joe Ninety 14/1 J. S. Moore 2 5 No Bitz * 8/1 J. S. Moore 9

6 Bamboozled 20/1 P. D. Evans 3 6 Aggi Mac 50/1 N. Bycroft 6

7 Grand Option * 9/2 B. Duke 9 7 Baytown Shamrock 8/1 P. McEntee 5

8 Im Spartacus * 20/1 I. A. Wood 10 8 Knickyknackienoo 25/1 T. Clement 10

9 Itsa Monkey 25/1 N. Littmoden 1 9 Absolutely Fab 33/1 C. Dunnett 7

10 His Majesty 4/1jf N. Littmoden 5 10 Kukini 16/1 B Rothwell 8

		2004		Draw			2003		Draw
1	Bunditten	9/2	A. Reid	4	1	Western Roots	10/3	P. Cole	4
2	I'm Aimee	33/1	P. D Evans	6	2	Three Welshmen	9/2	B. R Millman	3
3	Windy Prospect *	4/1jf	P. Blockley	8	3	Sir Ernest *	6/1	M Polglase	1
4	Cubic Confessions	13/2	J Osborne	7	4	Kuringai *	3/1f	B. Duke	2
5	Joe Ninety	14/1	J. S. Moore	2	5	No Bitz *	8/1	J. S. Moore	9
6	Bamboozled	20/1	P. D. Evans	3	6	Aggi Mac	50/1	N. Bycroft	6
7	Grand Option *	9/2	B. Duke	9	7	Baytown Shamrock	8/1	P. McEntee	5
8	Im Spartacus *	20/1	I. A. Wood	10	8	Knickyknackienoo	25/1	T. Clement	10
9	Itsa Monkey	25/1	N. Littmoden	1	9	Absolutely Fab	33/1	C. Dunnett	7
10	His Majesty	4/1jf	N. Littmoden	5	10	Kukini	16/1	B Rothwell	8