BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report
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045: Leicester : April 23rd, 5f (6) Maiden

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1. RACE SUMMARY

a) Performance Comparison
 

  • Race was run on GS going on a bright day with some sun. Race was run with a solid, but usable pace and an average time for the conditions.
  • With no particular support in the market other than some later each-way support for Out The Ordinary, Abbielou shortened to 5/6f.
  • The following table gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. A box in green denotes a runner that exceeded pre-race expectations and in pink a runner that performed notably below expectations. In either case it is useful to try to identify the reason for the difference.

    •  
    BA Foxtrot Out The Ordinary Abbielou Sands Crooner Forces Sweetheart Miss Maxi Bathwick Prince Sometimes Lucky Colmar Supreme Polar Blizzard
    [Estimate] Post-race 61 56 47 51 45 43 42 33 0 0
    [Profile] Pre-race 56 63 74 44 59 57 62 42 56 45
     
  • The 'shape' of the ratings above, with a large number of runners underperforming, raises a doubt that the the actual ratings given may be too low. While it's possible they could be 5-8lb higher for example this would still mean that Abbielou and Bathwick Prince notably underperformed. It would be very hard to credit that Abbielou ran to her Newmarket form - this would mean that BA Foxtrot rated 80+ (most unlikely) and Out The Ordinary high 70s (despite losing 5 lengths at the start and making it up quickly by halfway). Rather than make out BA Foxtrot to be above average it's preferable here to look for reasons why the others underperformed.

    •  
    BA FOXTROT Drifted from 12/1 to 16/1 on debut and no vibes that he was expected to compete strongly. Looked a neat, mature, competitive and early type but slightly limited by his size. Sat close to the pace and finished the race off best of those near the pacemakers. Inclined to the view that this was an 'accidental' debut win for the trainer in a race that was weaker than it looked. May struggle under the penalties he will have to carry.
    OUT THE ORDINARY Received some later each-way support from 8/1 to 13/2 as third favourite. His trainer has had three previous debut runs most with market support and they have been either moderate (not competitive) and/or inexperienced (losing ground at start). 
    In line with his trainer's record he was left in the stalls and lost 5 lengths. Similar to Silver Crest he then showed natural pace to make up the ground quickly and be tracking the leaders running slightly freely at halfway. He made an effort to move to second and chase the winner from inside 2f out before slightly fading late on.
    He had not grown from the sales and was not quite so taking as he had been there. He looked capable of muscling up into a sprinter who ought to be able to rate 80+ around mid-season.
    ABBIELOU A surprise with how small she is and immediately raised questions over the strength of the Newmarket race she lead and finished 3rd in. Well build but compact and lacking range. Looked like a fast ground 5f sprinter and limited by her size.
    With no real support for others she shortened from 11/10 to 5/6f. Unlike Newmarket she was settled tracking the leaders towards the centre of the track. As the race quickened after halfway she showed little progress and just plugged on.
    Inclined to the view that her size and lack of range means that she will need faster going and will be better being allowed to use her pace early in the race to set a target for others to chase. This race on easier and with her being ridden to try to 'quicken' after halfway wasn't in her best interests.
    In summary she underperformed against expectations because - a) the debut run at Newmarket looks over-rated; b) she's rather small and compact; c) she needs a faster surface to use her strength and leg speed.
    Also worth noting that her trainer has a poor record with STO runs of 7 days or less. She was running 10 days after debut which seemed 'ok' but possibly not. Each season the trainer struggles to win maidens with a range of runners who have shown glimpses of good form in good races.
    SANDS CROONER Opened 50/1 and finished at 40/1. Looked to have prospects of mid-60s ratings at best. Ran roughly to expectations and trainer tends to have runners which develop from debut to 'peak' 3TO. Might be able to find a minor race but not one to follow given the trainer's record overall.
    FORCES SWEETHEART Trainer has made a slow start to the season and his first two debut runs have been poor. He is usually a very organised and consistent trainer and the record so far suggests a possible problem - something to bear in mind in the short term.
    She looked an absolutely standard early type that he chooses carefully. A likeable type that ought to be able to rate just over 70 in early to mid-season but without great scope.
    She drifted slightly from 12/1 to 14/1 and ran a just about acceptable debut. Close up early and moving forward on the rail to press the pacemaker at halfway. She stalled from before one furlong out and slightly faded late. An acceptable debut and should be able to reach he expected rating but may need 6f.
    MISS MAXI Still didn't look as fit as expected on STO. 16/1 and never got into the race after a slightly slow pick-up. Plugged on into midfield late.
    BATHWICK PRINCE The trainer has had his 2yos readier than any trainer in 2005 and this runner much fitter than the others on his second outing. The form of his debut run looked poor and he did not improve here. 
    Steady at 9/2 2nd favourite in a market with no clues. Made a solid but usable pace to before 1 furlong from home and faded tamely from there (although slightly hampered). Inclined to the view that although he underperformed he's probably limited and will need a drop in grade to win.
    SOMETIMES LUCKY 100/1 and ran to expectations in chasing the pace as long as he could before fading. Still not fit enough but he isn't going to be much better when he is anyway.
    COLMAR SUPREME Her behaviour before the race was a notable negative. Got progressively more wound up and did not look ready to give her real potential.
    Did not look a 5f sprinter on the way she has developed. Drifted from 12/1 to 16/1. Tracked the pace to halfway before a strong fade and probably eased by R Hughes.
    Not one to give up on but track how she develops over further and when her behaviour improves.
    POLAR BLIZZARD On physical type he looked slightly better than his poor sales price. However he was a notably weak mover behind.
    Drifted from 20/1 to 25/1 and price may well have been that low because D Holland riding. Put up an untypically poor performance for a trainer who normally has 2yos competent on debut. Broke slowly and never got into the race and was adrift at the finish.


    2. PADDOCK REVIEW SUMMARY
    a) RATINGS & SUM-UPS
    The table gives the Paddock Review rating for the runners. The descriptions to the ratings is the same as those given in the 2004 Sales rating section.
    Name Rating Sum-up
    Out The Ordinary
    76
    		 Hasn't grown since the sales and the description is very similar to that one. Just about the heaviest built in the group and fit enough although can tighten up. Looks just the type on muscle bulk that will end up looking like a hard trained 'boxer' after mid season in the typical manner of the trainer's father's methods. Slight niggle that he might be too compact and slightly too small but a solid sprinter that should be able to rate just over 80.
    Forces Sweetheart 74 Slightly different type in a group of mainly small, heavier, early sprinters. Slightly more size although still with a solid build. A ready, neat type and notably mature, especially in front. Not a lot of scope but a likeable type that ought to be able to rate 70-75 in early to mid season although probably better for 6f than a 'pure speed' 5f.
    Abbielou
    74
    		 A surprise given her performance on debut and on first sight a question mark over the quality of her Newmarket third arose. Notably small and compact. Well built and deep, also strong behind. However, weaker in front and lacking range to use her strength. A 'now' filly that should need a fast ground 5f to show her best. Her lack of range & reach means she's relying on strength and leg speed (rather than length of stride) to show her best and may not stay a 'stiff' 5f. Probably limited to 70-74 rating and need faster conditions to show it.
    BA Foxtrot
    69
    		 An unremarkable type overall, slightly small but with some length. Strong quartered overall although slightly lighter build behind. Showed a notable mature and competitive attitude. In summary a neat type, lacking scope and slightly limited by his size but makes the most of what he is because of his maturity and solid reach. Probably can get to around 70 rating in early season but unlikely to develop further.
    Bathwick Prince
    67
    		 Fittest in the group by some way on his second run. Smaller and below average build compared to the group overall. Good mover. Disappointing here but ought to be able to rate mid-60s.
    Colmar Supreme
    67?
    		 Has changed from the sales and a different type to the rest of the group. Slightly taller and lengthier than the rest and does not seem to have put on muscle in line with the growth of her frame. However, she holds herself well and moves quite athletically. She isn't a 5f filly on set-up and needs to muscle up. She would be interesting to track at a low level to see how she fares over longer distances and/or lesser company.
    The other main point to note is that she was the worst behaved in the group and this got to the point where it was a notable negative. She got progressively more wound up and started sweating on the neck (in the way that shows 'nervous energy' rather than 'hot'). Jockey had to ride her from the parade ring to the course because she refused to be lead and pulled away from her handler.
    Sands Crooner
    64
    		 Medium size and with a solid build and notably strong behind (the shape and build of the thigh/gaskin/buttocks is absolutely typical of the type the trainer has, no matter what shape or size otherwise that area always looks the same). Slightly short and and still 'up' behind and a slightly 'bits & pieces' walker because of this. Should be able to rate 60s.
    Polar Blizzard
    62
    		 Made a poor price at the sales and although smallish showed acceptable build and depth. A notably weak mover behind. 
    Miss Maxi
    60
    		 Same rating as at Leicester on April 7th.
    Sometimes Lucky
    54
    		 Same rating as at Leicester on April 7th.
    b) SIZE AND BUILD
    The following table ranks the group for the separate qualities of Size & Build.

    A small (in Size terms) group overall with Abbielou below average even within this group.
     

    Size
    Build
    Colmar Supreme Out The Ordinary, 
    Forces Sweetheart, Miss Maxi, Out The Ordinary, Sands Crooner,  Abbielou, BA Foxtrot, Forces Sweetheart, Polar Blizzard, Sands Crooner, Miss Maxi
    BA Foxtrot, Bathwick Prince, Polar Blizzard Bathwick Prince, Colmar Supreme
    Abbielou, Sometimes Lucky,  Sometimes Lucky, 

    c) FITNESS
    The table below shows the runners ranked by their fitness on the day:

    Fitness
    Bathwick Prince 94 
    93.5
    Abbielou (3rd), Out The Ordinary (2nd), Polar Blizzard,  93
    Sands Crooner, Forces Sweetheart 92.5
     BA Foxtrot (1st), Colmar Supreme, Miss Maxi 92
    Sometimes Lucky 91.5

    d) PICTURES
    Pictures (variable quality) are available, and the best will be linked from the runner's individual summary pages, of the following runners :


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