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The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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MAY 4th SUMMING UP
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A similar race to the previous two seasons with a moderate group overall
on profile and the runner with the best previous form - Takoda -
likely to be odds-on.
The favourite has been beaten in the last two seasons for a mix of reasons.
The main ones being a) The form of their previous run was over-rated to
some extent; b) the newcomer who beat them were better sprint 2yos.
Assessing Takoda's form is made slightly difficult because of the soft
ground and slow time on debut. But he left a good impression and would
have won with a less stiff course and he has that here.
Only Danish Express and Bertie Southstreet have prospects to be
better 2yos than Takoda has already shown he is. Danish Express has a profile
that points strongly to a 65-70 rated 2yo. He runs for a trainer who has
his 2yos competitive on debut and has the best prospects of reaching the
level that Takoda has already shown. The third place runner behind Takoda
on debut ran for the same trainer so in theory he knows what chance Danish
Express has. However, the trainer's 2yos have all started at long SPs even
when placing suggesting the market will be a moderate indicator of Danish
Express' relative merits.
Bertie Southstreet is the most expensive in the field but gives
weight to all the other runners. His trainer has not had a good 2yo debut
yet in 2005 and this is in line with his overall record.
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RACE QUALITY:
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The race was not run in 2002. The last two editions have been very different
with a moderate group in 2004 winning the only race they managed to at
2yo on heavy ground. The 2003 race saw two average to slightly better sprint
2yos pull clear with two minor winners in behind. The ratings for these
two races show more than 14lbs difference.
Both races were won by horses on debut who beat odds-on favourites with
suspect quality placed runs.
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TRAINERS:
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None of the trainers have had a runner in the race in the last 3 years.
J Best has two runners (Bertie Southstreet on debut & Rising
Cross)
P Winkworth has two runners (Danish Express on debut & My Lady
Valentine).
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SIRES:
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First season sire Bertolini
(Bertie Southstreet & Pix) has two runners. He has had more 2yo runners
than any other first season sire.
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