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The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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MAY 27th SUMMING UP
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An interesting edition of the race but lacking the strong previous form
at York that the last two winners have had. Leo brings just
moderate form from his fourth at York and it is debatable whether he achieved
much more than Eliminator did in a seller.
His trainer's debuts so far in 2005 have been mostly uncompetitive (with
the notable exception of To Sender) despite a number being backed. On previous
evidence a number of them will develop to be solid winners but it can be
difficult to spot which ones will 'blossom' NTO. On his York run he showed
less than a normal trainer FTO runner so you couldn't be confident that
he'll improve enough to win this.
Knowing which of the Maktoum Al Maktoum owned pair wear the first colours
will be informative. Both run for trainer's whereby FTO wins tend to come
with useful+ types although the B. Hills trained Red Ash is likely
to be slightly more forward. His trainer has often run useful, or better,
7f types in the race and he has the profile to be another. However, unless
he's a natural he could well be vulnerable to a nipper type.
Kept Faith represents a trainer who had 1 debut win from 4 runners
in May in 2004 before showing the best FTO form with 7 wins from 12 in
June (well above his 25% average over the season). He has only run two
so far in 2005 with one untypically inexperienced debut and one FTO win
in an average race with a runner allowed an easy lead in a notably slow
time. Kept Faith is likely to be competent here but not unbeatable.
In a group without strong previous form a good debut from a 'Show or Nothing'
trainer might well be competitive at longer odds. Unless he's changed his
strategy trainer J. Given is a member of that club. He's changed something
this year because he's only had two runners so far and both poor types.
His earliest debuts tend to be the better 2yos and they are normally well
prepared at home. Gigs Magic has enough positives in the rest of
his profile to suggest he is at least above average.
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RACE QUALITY:
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Normally a high class maiden with a number of useful, or better, 2yos from
a range of major trainers. The race has been won by superior 2yos on their
STO runs in the last three years after strong placed runs at York or Newbury.
The winner normally needs to produce a rating in the high 70s at least.
The remainder of the field is usually of varied quality but in an average
year will include 2-4 winners capable of rating 70+
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| PREVIOUS FORM: |
Given the record of the race it is worth considering the strength of the
previous form in the field. Leo comes from what is traditionally
a strong maiden at York's May meeting. That race looked solid in profile
and the first three pulled clear with Leo a quiet 4th and the wrong side
of a 5L gap.
The ground at York was soft and did not seem to suit some of the runners.
The subsequent performances from the race group raise issues over how good
that form was. Refer to the Summary.
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TRAINERS:
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B. Hills regularly runs a useful 2yo in the race. In 2002 Surbiton
won the race on his second run and ran unplaced in the Coventry stakes
NTO before winning a Group race. In 2003 Desert Dreamer ran a quiet but
promising debut in 4th before a STO win.
In 2004 Country Ramble was second favourite but notably worked up and lost
a lot of ground at the start and finished last. He won a maiden comfortably
STO and then ran unplaced in the same Group 3 race that Surbiton had won
in 2002.
He runs two today with Red Ash likely to be the first string over Global
Genius.
M Johnston has had a runner in the last three races. The best was
the superior Pearl Of Love who was a clear winner STO after a good debut
at York. In the other two seasons he has run disappointing types for the
Maktoum family. Both finished second on their STO runs after 70ish rated
debuts.
He runs the Maktoum Al Maktoum owner bred Meaningful on it's debut. The
owner also has Red Ash running for B. Hills so interesting to see which
has the owner's first colours.
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SIRES:
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First season sires Galileo
(Global Genius), Fruits Of
Love (Road To Love) & Observatory
(Observatory Star) have runners.
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