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The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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JUNE 1st SUMMING UP
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A difficult race to weigh up and a patchy profile. None of the runners
has strong previous form and with the help of weight allowances
Ten Downing Street, Bathwick Intyre, Lucky April & Bella Bertolini
come quite close together at the upper end. However, they have managed
a total of one poor 3rd place between them and do not set a strong standard.
The race feels like one where a good performance from a better newcomer
is the best chance of finding a reasonably clear winner. New Art
has to give weight to the others but a slightly better than average debut
by his trainer's standards would still see him able to win.
Arminius' trainer won the race in 2004 with a strong debut from
a superior son of Montjeu. He had a number of debut wins in that period
with useful types that competed well at Group level later. In 2005 he seems
to lack some better 2yos and has only had one FTO winner from 34 debuts
to date. On his pedigree and his trainer's record in 2005 he would need
o be useful+ to win over 5f FTO. On balance this seems unlikely.
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TRAINERS:
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D Elsworth has his first 2yo runner of the season with Indecent
Proposal. This is a typical time for him to start running his 2yos. In
2004 he had an unsuccessful attempt with some early season debuts which
were notably inexperienced. However, the season developed well when he
restarted with 2yos at about this time and he had his best year for some
time.
The earliest debuts in each year will be a range of types, including both
later winners and moderate maidens.
His basic strategy with 2yos is to win a maiden their first three runs
and then the better runners may run in Listed+ races and the others will
wait for their 3yo season. This means that most wins are usually in the
first runs and 4TO+ wins are usually rare.
Although he does not normally target FTO wins his runners are usually very
competent on debut (especially the later season debuts) and run within
10lbs of their best rating. This means that he can get FTO winners with
superior runners and that most runners with ability will make the first
four on debut. The exceptions in 2004 were the two early debuts in April
which showed some inexperience.
It is worth considering it a rule that if his later debut runners do not
show ability FTO then that's what they are, do not expect great improvement.
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SIRES:
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First season sires Bertolini
(Bella Bertolini), Mull Of
Kintyre (Bathwick Intyre) have runners.
Umpteen times champion sire Sadlers
Wells (Arabian Sea) has a rare early season runner. He has a below
average record with his 2yos and is not a particularly important sire for
2yo racing overall. The majority of his stock are better for 8f+ and development
as 3yos and most of his 2yo runners will have one or two late season runs.
He has had one win before the end of July in the last three seasons and
3 before the end of August. In the same period he has only had three wins
at less than 8f, all at 7f.
One area he ranks highly in for 2yos is the "Number of 2yos rated over
100". This is one of those selective statistics which sounds impressive
but has limited general impact. He's the champion sire and gets his pick
of the best mares (who contribute 50% of the genetic input which tends
to get forgotten in most areas in racing stats), he ought to be getting
a lot of higher class horses. But horses rated 100+ and racing at 7f+ is
a very small corner of the 2yo racing scene (less than 1% depending how
you count it). So he can be treated as a 'minor' sire for general 2yo racing
purposes.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Bathwick Intyre rated 69. Below medium size but with quite heavy
build (probably sire typical). Looked an ok early 'little sprinter'. Rating
for early season.
Bella Bertolini was rated just 52 at the sales and the Auctioneer
took more than a minute to prise an opening bid of 800 gns. She was very
small although quite heavily built, compact and deep in front.
She was paddock reviewed at Windsor and had changed a great deal. She looks
slightly odd in that the front and back halves appear to come from different
horses. However, she has grown well and become notably mature and muscular
in front. Lighter and less powerful behind. She was fitter than any 2yo
reviewed to date.
Difficult to rate her overall but she ought to be better than the 52 sales
rating and a mid 60s level would be plausible with the fitness advantage.
Arabian Sea (Sales) rated 64. Just below medium size and above medium
build. In proportion and balanced overall. Unremarkable but not convincing
as a better type.
Indecent Proposal (Sales) rated 57. Tiny and below medium build.
Narrow & weak in front.
Hallandale (Sales) rated 56. Lengthy and physically immature. A
moderate mover behind.
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