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The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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MAY 22nd SUMMING UP
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A typical version of the race in some ways with the Maktoum brothers well
represented and a range of abilities in opposition. However, it is untypical
in terms of the depth of the quality. Normally only one or two better types
grace the race whereas we have a range of higher quality here.
Tawaassol has a profile which suggests he may well be superior and
an early debut runner for his trainer to test him out for better races.
His trainer gets his 2yos fit enough on debut but they lack the final edge
and can be vulnerable to better types who are more forward. He may well
be a shortish SP and in the long term his trainer's debut runners are poor
value.
Sebaaq has a very similar profile and represents a trainer who has
his FTO 2yos readier than M Stoute does in general. But for the fact that
he is apparently the owner's second string to Tawaassol he might have come
out top on profile. Even so, it is not impossible for the readier type
to beat the first string in these circumstances.
Other newcomers with good profiles but from stables where they would need
to be better than useful to win on debut provide the main opposition to
Hamdan's pair. Kilbarri appears to the better of the Maktoum Al
Maktoum pair but his pedigree is a little 'light' to suggest he is good
enough to win this on debut. But a good sign is that his trainer has won
the race in the last two years with better types for the Maktoum family.
Racer Forever is diverted here after Goodwood was abandoned and
represents a friend of the Maktoum family and is by Rahy as are the Hamdan
two. He is the other newcomer who appeals as a stronger competitor.
The race has a history of moderate to average runners with the advantage
of previous runs making the first four at longer SPs while rating in the
50s to 60s. This race looks strong enough to make that unlikely. The best
of those that have run is likely to be Bold Cross assuming that
the failed '5f early season' experiment was because he had been showing
some pace in early training. His pedigree suggests this 6f race after a
break should be a better fit.
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RACE QUALITY:
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The race has had a very mixed clientele in the last three years. At the
top table it has been a chance for the Maktoum brothers to introduce a
couple of better types. One of the family has won the last three races.
The supporting field has mostly been of average quality at best with many
of much lower ability. The relative readiness and fitness has led to some
early season 'whippets' getting quite close to the blue-bloods at long
prices.
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TRAINERS:
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M Johnston has won the last two runnings of the late May 6f race
at the course. Both have been with horse owned by the Maktoum family that
ran in group races later. One was on debut.
M Stoute has his first 2yo runner of the season. He has a very consistent
strategy and record. Roughly 60 2yos run each season and about 20 of them
win at a 20% strike rate. Most will only run once or twice and will be
targeted at maiden wins. A few will run in Listed+ races.
Runners are usually fit and competent on debut and the better ones can
place and win. FTO SPs are not well correlated with performance nor overall
ability. However, a longer SP (16/1+) is a pretty sure sign of a moderate
runner.
This is a typical start date and the earliest debuts are a mix of natural
useful 2yos and limited owner breds. His first runner in 2002 was a poor
owner bred in this race. His early debuts are often poor value. In 2003
the first four debuts started at odds-on and one won. In total his first
ten 2yo debuts in the period 2002-4 have produced 4 wins from 30 runners
at low SPs.
He runs the $650,000 Tawaassol today and he is the first string for his
owner Hamdam Al Maktoum. Probably safe to assume he's not a duff one.
T Mills has his first 2yo runner of the season. He does not strongly
target 2yo racing and until recently only ran a few in late season. This
is a more typical start date following an unsuccessful attempt at earlier
debuts in 2004. He does not target strong debuts and aims for STO wins
with his better types. His runner here - Charlton - is a half brother to
his best 2yo in 2004 who was one of the inexperienced March debut.
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SIRES:
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First season sires Fruits Of
Love (Don Tenorio) & Medicean
(Petrichan) have runners. Medicean's is his first 2yo runner. He was unraced
at 2yo and by a non precocious sire in Machiavellian (who himself has not
had a runner yet in 2005).
US based sire Rahy (Cnoc Na Gaoithe,
Racer Forever & Sebaaq) has three representatives.
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