BRITISH 2yo RACING

2002-2015 - Period Review
Horses
 






2002-2015 - Horses Review

[Horses]
Total Runners; Winners & Debuts Details; Gender & Colour Splits; Birthdates vs Strike Rates.
Races
Total Races; Breakdown by Types, Class & Distance; Distribution through Season; AW Totals.
Winners
FTO Winners SR & by Distance; Multiple Winners; Wins by Run Number Distributions.
Starting Prices
2005-2014 Seasons SPs Summary
Sire/Dam - General
Sire Runner Totals Groups; Sires with Winners Groups; Dam's Age versus Strike Rate.
Trainers - General
Trainer Runner Totals Groups; Sires with Winners Groups; Use of Headgear; NR & WDs; FTO Course Choice.


Questions covered in the Horse Section :-
    1. How many 2yo horses ran during each season?
    2. What percentage of those runners won a race?
    3. What percentage of winning horses win more than one race?
    4. When do runners make their debuts during the season?
    5. What is the breakdown of runners by the coat colour?
    6. Does a horse's coat colour make any difference to their chances of winning at 2yo?
    7. Do fillies win their share of races compared to the males?
    8. Does a horse's month of birth make any difference to the chances of winning?
    9. What percentage of males are already gelded when they make their debut runs?



1. How many 2yo horses ran during each season?
 
Season Runners # Males # Females % Males % Females
2002 2,585 1,398 1,187 54.1 45.9
2003 2,671 1,489 1,182 55.7 44.3
2004 2,949 1,611 1,338 54.6 45.4
2005 2,904 1,629 1,275 56.1 43.9
2006 2,740 1,536 1,204 56.1 43.9
2007 3,080 1,753 1,327 56.9 43.1
2008 3,093 1,675 1,418 54.2 45.8
2009 2,986 1,663 1,323 55.7 44.3
2010 2,928 1,639 1,289 55.8 44.2
2011 2,868 1,573 1,295 54.8 45.2
2012 2,575 1,432 1,143 55.6 44.4
2013 2,630 1,405 1,225 53.4 46.6
2014 2,675 1,469 1,206 54.9 45.1
2015 2,759 1,524 1,235 55.2 44.8
Note:(a) Difference in Number of Males to Females

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2. What percentage of those Horses won a race?
 
Season Horses Winning Horses % Winners
2002 2,585 679 26.3%
2003 2,671 734 27.5%
2004 2,949 760 25.8%
2005 2,904 758 26.1%
2006 2,740 735 26.8%
2007 3,080 836 27.1%
2008 3,093 826 26.7%
2009 2,986 840 28.1%
2010 2,928 805 27.5%
2011 2,868 830 28.9%
2012 2,575 795 30.9%
2013 2,630 798 30.3%
2014 2,675 805 30.0%
2015 2,759 818 29.6%
Note: (a) 14.1% increase in horses & 9.4% increase in races in 2007
(b) 4.4% increase in races & 3.5% decrease in horses in 2009

Note that around 70-75% of 2yo runners do not win, depending upon the balance of active horse population to available races. Therefore when looking at 2yo population in paddock review you are looking for the approximately 25% that can win at some level. If you decide to look for horses in Paddock Review capable of rating 70+ (which is the benchmark rating in the B2yoR Paddock Review System) and discount races won with performances rating below Official Rating (OR) of 70 (seller, most claimers, lower level nurseries, many auctions races) then you are looking for the top 500-600 horses in a population of 2,600 or more.

It is also worth considering that if 25% of runners win, then chances of buying a 2yo winner at the yearling sales are probably around 1 in 9 (11% of yearlings sold). In the 2004 season, for example, of the 2,949 runners around 1,900 went through the sales ring and 'appeared' to be sold. Therefore around 500 winners were sold at auction.

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3. What percentage of winning horses win more than one race?

Season 1 Race 2 Races 3 Races 4 Races 5 Races 6 Races 7 Races Total
2002 474 (70%) 158 (23%) 37 9 1 - - 679
2003 531 (72%) 155 (21%) 38 6 3 - 1 734
2004 583 (77%) 127 (17%) 41 7 2 - - 760
2005 564 (74%) 153 (20%) 35 6 - - - 758
2006 561 (76%) 124 (17%) 42 (6%) 4 2 - - 735
2007 672 (80%) 137 (16%) 22 (3%) 4 1 - - 836
2008 639 (77%) 153 (19%) 31 (4%) 3 - - - 826
2009 643 (77%) 158 (19%) 30 (4%) 5 3 1 - 840
2010 585 (73%) 178 (22%) 27 (3%) 13 1 1 - 805
2011 629 (76%) 164 (20%) 29 (3%) 8 - - - 830
2012 599 (75%) 156 (20%) 33 (4%) 6 1 - - 795
2013 601 (75%) 150 (19%) 39 (5%) 8 - - - 798
2014 609 (76%) 156 (19%) 35 (4%) 4 - 1 - 805
2015 638 (78%) 145 (18%) 29 (4%) 6 - - - 818
Note: (a) The decrease in double winners in 04 & 06-7. 
(b) The single 7 time winner was Peak To Creek in 2003
(c) The 5 time winner in 2007 was Captain Gerrard
(d) The 6 time winner in 2009 was Monsieur Chevalier, the 3 x 5 time winners were Layla's Hero,
Star Rover & Transfixed. The last pair trained by PD (David) Evans who also trained one of the 4 time win horses.
(e) The large number of 4 time winners in 2010 included 8 multiple winners in nurseries of whom 6 won 3 nurseries. Enough to wonder about a change in the BHA handicapper's approach along with the increase in dual winners over single successes.
(f) The 6 time winner in 2010 was Zebedee & the 5 time winner was Krypton Factor.
(g) The 5 time winner in 2012 was Hardy Blue.
(h) The 6 time winner in 2014 was Tiggy Wiggy.

The current structure of race types and penalties makes it difficult to win more than one race and the increase in the percentage of single winners suggest this process in continuing to tighten up (possibly because of the BHA's handicapper's methods). There are a small number of reasons why horses win more than two races which are considered in an Article on the site.

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4. When do runners make their debuts during the season?

Season March April May June July August September October November
2002 61 171 307 307 370 347 240 341 55
2003 83 209 361 405 416 355 375 319 121
2004 84 223 401 404 535 411 432 358 42
2005 78 238 379 440 495 453 428 365 28
2006 51 218 322 453 380 440 432 361 39
2007 25 230 422 442 463 480 422 431 99
2008 48 215 411 456 476 478 456 452 67
2009 46 223 418 427 472 453 425 413 49
2010 54 210 444 428 457 407 462 365 47
2011 28 218 385 460 471 396 409 396 52
2012 23 147 390 446 342 407 356 360 67
2013 37 183 356 431 380 428 345 372 59
2014 26 219 379 390 415 364 412 359 65
2015 22 176 402 408 445 416 431 348 50
Note: (a) Late start to season in 2007 & 2012

The following table gives the cumulative total of runners that had made their debuts by the end of each month in the 2005, 2010 and 2013-15 seasons. The discrepancy between the number of debuts and the overall total of runners is caused by foreign runners who did not make their debuts in Britain.

Season March April May June July August September October November
2005 78 316 695 1,135 1,630 2,083 2,511 2,876 2,904
2010 54 264 708 1,136 1,593 2,000 2,462 2,827 2,874
2013 37 220 576 1,007 1,387 1,815 2,160 2,532 2,591
2014 26 245 624 1,014 1,429 1,793 2,205 2,564 2,629
2015 22 198 600 1,008 1,453 1,869 2,300 2,648 2,698

For example, in 2005 only 695 horses (24%) had made their debuts by the end of May and only around 1000 by the end of the Royal Ascot (at York) meeting.

This is worth considering in the context of a range of  issues but, in particular, the quality of early season Listed and Group races. The 2005 season saw two new Listed races added to the Pattern in May with the first on May 13th by which date just 453 horses (16% of the season total) had run.

Races which are accorded Class 1 status should have a good prospect of being tough events with some longer term significance. Running Listed races when such a small percentage of the 2yo population is active is likely to undermine the value of the term 'Listed'. The better option is to leave these races as Conditions events unless we really feel the need for a 'Precocity Championship'.

We will probably end up with another, unnecessary, Class to enable the 'Listed' level to be split into the wide range of abilities it currently covers. Consider that the toughest 3yo Listed race with experienced athletes, including those with good Group race form, is worth as much as the earliest 2yo Listed race amongst a small pool of unproven horses. The phrase 'Listed Race' is used in the Media and Sales Catalogues as if it were a single performance level so those in charge of the Pattern and race classification need to be careful with their decisions.

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5. What is the breakdown of runners by the coat colour?

Season Total Horses Bays Chestnuts Greys % Bays % Chestnuts % Greys
2002 2,585 1,845 639 103 71.3% 24.7% 4.0%
2003 2,671 1,903 656 112 71.2% 24.6% 4.2%
2004 2,949 2,201 635 113 74.6% 21.5% 3.9%
2005 2,904 2,152 650 102 74.1% 22.4% 3.5%
2006 2,740 2,028 605 104 74.0% 22.1% 3.8%
2007 3,075 2,265 682 128 73.7% 22.2% 4.2%
2008 3,093 2,322 640 131 75.1% 20.7% 4.2%
2009 2,986 2,182 672 132 73.1% 22.5% 4.4%
2010 2,928 2,253 533 142 76.9% 18.2% 4.8%
2011 2,868 2,205 546 117 76.9% 19.0% 4.1%
2012 2,575 1,966 490 118 76.3% 19.0% 4.6%
2013 2,625 1,977 509 139 75.3% 19.4% 5.3%
2014 2,675 2,043 489 138 76.4% 18.3% 5.2%
2015 2,759 2,100 505 151 76.1% 18.3% 5.5%
Note: (a) 5 horses recorded as Roan in 2007, 1 in 2012, 5 in both 2013/14, 3 in 2015.

Thoroughbred coat colour and its inheritance is briefly explained in an Article on this site.

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6. Does a horse's coat colour make any difference to their chances of winning at 2yo?

Season Total Races Bays Chestnuts Greys % Bays % Chestnuts % Greys
2002 942 700 212 30 74.3% 22.5% 3.2%
2003 996 748 222 26 75.1% 22.3% 2.6%
2004 998 756 215 27 75.8% 21.5% 2.7%
2005 998 752 212 34 75.4% 21.2% 3.4%
2006 960 722 200 39 75.2% 20.8% 4.0%
2007 1,033 797 185 48 77.2% 18.0% 4.6%
2008 1,051 807 202 42 76.8% 19.2% 4.0%
2009 1,088 814 224 50 74.8% 20.6% 4.6%
2010 1,086 848 182 56 78.1% 16.8% 5.2%
2011 1,076 840 193 43 78.1% 17.9% 4.0%
2012 1,038 799 191 49 76.9% 18.4% 4.7%
2013 1,050 794 194 60 75.6% 18.5% 5.7%
2014 1,048 802 199 46 76.5% 19.0% 4.4%
2015 1,039 787 197 53 75.7% 19.0% 5.1%
Table shows the Breakdown of Total Season Races won by different Coat Colour Groups.
Notes: (a) The 5 Roan horses in 2007 produced 2 winners of 3 races, 2 of 2 in 2012 & 1 of 1 in 2014. 1 x Dual winner in 2015.
(b) Dead-heats = 3 in 2007; 3 in 2008; 4 in 2009; 3 in 2010; 1 in 2010 & 2011; None in 2013 & 2015; 1 in 2014.

Thoroughbred coat colour and its inheritance is briefly explained in an Article on this site.

There is no theoretical basis to believe that coat colour is linked to athletic performance (the inheritance of the former is reasonably well understood, while the latter, hardly at all). However, the figures show that Bays have, consistently, won slightly more races than would be expected and Chestnuts slightly less. An interesting question posed as to what the cause(s) might be.


As a cross check in 2012-15 the following table summarises the Wins per Total runs (Strike Rate) by the three colour types. Remember that the tables above are split by Races and not individual Horse Runs totals. One check, for example, would be that perhaps Chestnut horses run less often and so win a lesser share of the races but with an expected Strike Rate.

Season Total Runs Bays C'nuts Greys SR Bays SR C'nuts SR Greys RpR Bays RpR C'nuts RpR Greys
2012 9,143 6,960 1,756 424 11.48% 10.88% 11.55% 3.54 3.58 3.59
2013 9,101 6,794 1,752 537 11.69% 11.07% 11.17% 3.44 3.44 3.86
2014 9,162 6,957 1,685 496   11.53% 11.81% 9.27%   3.41 3.45 3.59
2015 9,272 7,023 1,721 516   11.21% 11.45% 10.27%   3.34 3.41 3.42

The table suggests that the view of Chestnuts producing a lesser win record is comfirmed by the lower overall Strike Rate compared to Bays & Greys. RpR means the Average Runs Per Runner and confirms that each coat colour type runs a closely comparable number races, on average. The Roan horse in 2012 ran three times without winning. Five Roans in 2013 produced 2 wins from 18 runs.

2014 the first year to show the Chestnuts having the best Strike Rate. Probably another lesson in Sample Sizes and how long a time period you would have to study such figures to come to any firm conclusions.

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7. Do fillies win their share of races compared to the males?

Season Total Wins Won by Males Won by Fillies
2002 942 534   (56.7%) 408   (43.3%)
2003 996 597   (59.9%)  399   (40.1%)
2004 998 582   (58.3%) 416  (41.7%)
2005 998 604   (60.5%) 394   (39.5%)
2006 960 571   (59.5%) 389   (40.5%)
2007 1,030 635   (61.7%) 395   (38.3%)
2008 1,051 623  (59.3%) 428  (40.7%)
2009 1,088 676  (62.1%) 412  (37.9%)
2010 1,086 656  (60.4%) 430  (39.6%)
2011 1,076 641 (59.6%) 435 (40.4%)
2012 1,039 618 (59.5%) 421 (40.5%)
2013 1,050 607 (57.8%) 443 (42.2%)
2014 1,047 628 (60.0%) 419 (40.0%)
2015 1,039 601 (57.8%) 438 (42.2%)
Note : (a) In 2010 there were 187 races for Fillies' only in the overall figures. Males won 656 of the
899 races open to both sexes (73%).

Remember that the split between Male and Female runners is on average is around 55% male to 45% females. If everything else was equal then you could expect a similar split of races won. The table shows that males win more of the 2yo races than expected.

This difference is actually more pronounced than the figures in the table suggest. Consider that in 2007 there were 158 more races confined to fillies' only compared to males' only. Therefore with a 15.1% (it was 13.5% in 2005) 'head start' they still only won 38.3% of the races. They won only 237 (28.8%) of the 822 events open to both sexes.

Fillies have other advantages:-

  • the 5lb sex allowance in stakes races;
  • they also have an in-built advantage in Auction races where raceweights are allotted by sales price. Fillies as a group make less at yearling auctions than males. This means that some fillies of slightly better physical type and pedigree will compete in Auction races off comparable weights with slightly inferior males (taken as a population group).
Follow-on questions include:-
  • Do fillies make as many runs, on average, as males?
Season Total runs in Season Total Runs by Fillies % of Total Runs by Fillies
2004 10,567 4,801 45.0%
2005 10,601 4,934 46.5%
2006 9,466 4,166 44.0%
2007 10,919 4,763 43.6%
2008 10,537 4,772 45.3%
2009 10,592 4,658 44.0%
2010 10,468 4,597 43.9%
2011 10,107 4,513 44.7%
2012 9,143 4,074 44.6%
2013 9,101 4,217 46.3%
2014 9,162 4,080 44.5%
Total Runs by Fillies Total Wins by Fillies Wins-Runs % Fillies' FTO Win-Runs %
2004 4,801 408 8.5% 6.2%
2005 4,934 394 8.0% 5.3%
2006 4,166 389 9.3% 5.9%
2007 4,763 395 8.3% 7.2%
2008 4,772 428 9.0% 6.1%
2009 4,658 412 8.8% 5.7%
2010 4,597 430 9.3% 6.8%
2011 4,513 435 9.6% 8.0%
2012 4,074 421 10.3% 7.9%
2013 4,217 443 10.5% 6.3%
2014 4,080 419 10.3% 6.6%
  • What is the breakdown of Wins to Runs by Fillies in different Race Types?
Filly Strike Rates
in Open Races
Open Maidens Open Auction
Races
Open Nurseries
2004 8.0% 7.4% 7.9%
2005 8.3% 9.0% 6.6%
2006 7.9% 7.7% 9.3%
2007 7.3% 8.5% 7.3%
2008 6.8% 9.7% 9.5%
2009 7.3% 7.6% 8.4%
2010 8.8% 9.8% 9.7%
2011 7.9% 11.5% 8.4%
2012 8.0% 9.9% 8.8%
2013 9.1% 13.2% 10.9%
2014 8.6% 12.6% 8.8%
Note: (a) The Strike Rate for all 2yos in all 1,030 races in 2007 was 9.5%
(b) Strike Rate for all 2yos in 2009 for 1,084 races was 10.2% (Higher
because of fewer horses but the highest number of races ever).
Overall Strike Rate for all runners in 2013 was 11.5%.

The table show the Strike Rates achieved by 2yo fillies in different race types where they are competing against males. In open Maiden races fillies will normally receive 5lbs in weight-for-sex allowance from colts & geldings. Auction Races are defined as those where the weights carried are set by the sales price of the individual horse. These races also usually allow fillies 5lbs in comparison to males for equivalent sales price groupings.

Nurseries are handicaps where the weight is set by the rating the horse has been given by the BHA's official handicapper and do not include any weight-for-sex allowance.

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8. Does a horse's month of birth make any difference to the chances of winning?

2005-13
Seasons
Complete Seasons 2014
Season
Complete Season
Birth Month Total Horses Runs Wins Wins % Birth Month Total Horses Runs Wins Wins %
Jan 2,042 7,135 791 11.1% Jan 186 652 83 12.7%
Feb 6,298 22,130 2,442 11.0% Feb 668 2,270 307 13.5%
Mar 8,115 29,374 3,176 10.8% Mar 903 3,159 373 11.8%
Apr 7,316 25,825 2,439 9.4% Apr 771 2,688 255 9.9%
May 1,979 6,342 522 8.2% May 147 393 30 7.6%
Jun 29 59 1 1.7% Jun 0 - - %

    During the early part of the 2yo season you will hear pundits trying to pick 2yo winners by their foaling date. The suggestion will be that a horse has a better chance of winning if it was foaled earlier in the year because it will be more physically mature. Using this approach for individual horses and races is probably not useful because specific horses develop at different period in their life. Also, to have made a debut they must have been well developed enough to complete a basic training schedule to be ready to race on course.



The following Table shows the percentage of Wins to Runs by horses foaled in particular months during the periods March 1st to July 31st and March 1st to May 31st in the 2005 to 2013 seasons. The Turf season, and 2yo racing, usually starts on a date between March 20th to 30th depending upon when Easter falls.

2005-13
Seasons
Mar 1st to Jul 31st Mar 1st to May 31st
Birth Month Total Runs Wins Wins-Runs Birth Month Total Runs Wins Wins-Runs
Jan 2,851 324 11.4% Jan 847 108 12.3%
Feb 8,598 1,065 12.4% Feb 2,666 343 12.9%
Mar 11,305 1,350 11.9% Mar 3,514 438 12.5%
Apr 9,927 957 9.6% Apr 2,983 296 9.9%
May 2,049 164 8.0% May 489 41 8.4%
Jun 14 0 0% Jun 2 0 0%

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9. What percentage of males are already gelded when they make their debut runs?

Season Total Males Colts on Deb Gelding on Deb % Geldings on Deb
2002 1,398 1,095 303 21.7%
2003 1,498 1,190 299 20.0%
2004 1,611 1,327 317 19.7%
2005 1,629 1,388 241 14.8%
2006 1,536 1,297 239 15.6%
2007 1,753 1,547 206 11.8%
2008 1,675 1,372 303 18.1%
2009 1,663 1,347 316 19.0%
2010 1,606 1,316 290 18.1%
2011 1,535 1,257 278 18.1%
2012 1,408 1,151 257 18.2%
2013 1,415 1,187 228 16.1%
2014 1,469 1,236 233 15.9%

In 2007 the 206 geldings included 9 that won on debut which is a Strike Rate of 4.4%. In the same season fillies managed an unusually high debut Strike Rate of 7.2% and colts 6.9%. In 2010 the Strike Rate on Debuts for Geldings was up to 5.3% but still well behind the overall figure of 7.5% for all debuts (including geldings).

In 2013 the 228 Geldings had a debut Strike Rate of 5.7% compared with 8.7% for Colts and 6.3% for Fillies.

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