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• 2yo Racing 2002-15

1. How many 2yo horses ran during each season?
2. What percentage of those runners won a race?
3. What percentage of winning horses win more than one race?
4. When do runners make their debuts during the season?
5. What is the breakdown of runners by the coat colour?
6. Does a horse's coat colour make any difference to their chances of winning at 2yo?
7. Do fillies win their share of races compared to the males?
8. Does a horse's month of birth make any difference to the chances of winning?
9. What percentage of males are already gelded when they make their debut runs?

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Note that around 70-75% of 2yo runners do not win, depending upon the balance of active horse population to available races. Therefore when looking at 2yo population in paddock review you are looking for the approximately 25% that can win at some level. If you decide to look for horses in Paddock Review capable of rating 70+ (which is the benchmark rating in the B2yoR Paddock Review System) and discount races won with performances rating below Official Rating (OR) of 70 (seller, most claimers, lower level nurseries, many auctions races) then you are looking for the top 500-600 horses in a population of 2,600 or more.

It is also worth considering that if 25% of runners win, then chances of buying a 2yo winner at the yearling sales are probably around 1 in 9 (11% of yearlings sold). In the 2004 season, for example, of the 2,949 runners around 1,900 went through the sales ring and 'appeared' to be sold. Therefore around 500 winners were sold at auction.

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The current structure of race types and penalties makes it difficult to win more than one race and the increase in the percentage of single winners suggest this process in continuing to tighten up (possibly because of the BHA's handicapper's methods). There are a small number of reasons why horses win more than two races which are considered in an Article on the site.

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The following table gives the cumulative total of runners that had made their debuts by the end of each month in the 2005, 2010 and 2013-15 seasons. The discrepancy between the number of debuts and the overall total of runners is caused by foreign runners who did not make their debuts in Britain.

Season	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November
2005	78	316	695	1,135	1,630	2,083	2,511	2,876	2,904
2010	54	264	708	1,136	1,593	2,000	2,462	2,827	2,874
2013	37	220	576	1,007	1,387	1,815	2,160	2,532	2,591
2014	26	245	624	1,014	1,429	1,793	2,205	2,564	2,629
2015	22	198	600	1,008	1,453	1,869	2,300	2,648	2,698

For example, in 2005 only 695 horses (24%) had made their debuts by the end of May and only around 1000 by the end of the Royal Ascot (at York) meeting.

This is worth considering in the context of a range of  issues but, in particular, the quality of early season Listed and Group races. The 2005 season saw two new Listed races added to the Pattern in May with the first on May 13th by which date just 453 horses (16% of the season total) had run.

Races which are accorded Class 1 status should have a good prospect of being tough events with some longer term significance. Running Listed races when such a small percentage of the 2yo population is active is likely to undermine the value of the term 'Listed'. The better option is to leave these races as Conditions events unless we really feel the need for a 'Precocity Championship'.

We will probably end up with another, unnecessary, Class to enable the 'Listed' level to be split into the wide range of abilities it currently covers. Consider that the toughest 3yo Listed race with experienced athletes, including those with good Group race form, is worth as much as the earliest 2yo Listed race amongst a small pool of unproven horses. The phrase 'Listed Race' is used in the Media and Sales Catalogues as if it were a single performance level so those in charge of the Pattern and race classification need to be careful with their decisions.

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Thoroughbred coat colour and its inheritance is briefly explained in an Article on this site.

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Thoroughbred coat colour and its inheritance is briefly explained in an Article on this site.

There is no theoretical basis to believe that coat colour is linked to athletic performance (the inheritance of the former is reasonably well understood, while the latter, hardly at all). However, the figures show that Bays have, consistently, won slightly more races than would be expected and Chestnuts slightly less. An interesting question posed as to what the cause(s) might be.

As a cross check in 2012-15 the following table summarises the Wins per Total runs (Strike Rate) by the three colour types. Remember that the tables above are split by Races and not individual Horse Runs totals. One check, for example, would be that perhaps Chestnut horses run less often and so win a lesser share of the races but with an expected Strike Rate.

Season	Total Runs	Bays	C'nuts	Greys		SR Bays	SR C'nuts	SR Greys		RpR Bays	RpR C'nuts	RpR Greys
2012	9,143	6,960	1,756	424		11.48%	10.88%	11.55%		3.54	3.58	3.59
2013	9,101	6,794	1,752	537		11.69%	11.07%	11.17%		3.44	3.44	3.86
2014	9,162	6,957	1,685	496		11.53%	11.81%	9.27%		3.41	3.45	3.59
2015	9,272	7,023	1,721	516		11.21%	11.45%	10.27%		3.34	3.41	3.42

The table suggests that the view of Chestnuts producing a lesser win record is comfirmed by the lower overall Strike Rate compared to Bays & Greys. RpR means the Average Runs Per Runner and confirms that each coat colour type runs a closely comparable number races, on average. The Roan horse in 2012 ran three times without winning. Five Roans in 2013 produced 2 wins from 18 runs.

2014 the first year to show the Chestnuts having the best Strike Rate. Probably another lesson in Sample Sizes and how long a time period you would have to study such figures to come to any firm conclusions.

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Remember that the split between Male and Female runners is on average is around 55% male to 45% females. If everything else was equal then you could expect a similar split of races won. The table shows that males win more of the 2yo races than expected.

This difference is actually more pronounced than the figures in the table suggest. Consider that in 2007 there were 158 more races confined to fillies' only compared to males' only. Therefore with a 15.1% (it was 13.5% in 2005) 'head start' they still only won 38.3% of the races. They won only 237 (28.8%) of the 822 events open to both sexes.

Fillies have other advantages:-

• the 5lb sex allowance in stakes races;
• they also have an in-built advantage in Auction races where raceweights are allotted by sales price. Fillies as a group make less at yearling auctions than males. This means that some fillies of slightly better physical type and pedigree will compete in Auction races off comparable weights with slightly inferior males (taken as a population group).

• Do fillies make as many runs, on average, as males?

• What is the breakdown of Wins to Runs by Fillies in different Race Types?

The table show the Strike Rates achieved by 2yo fillies in different race types where they are competing against males. In open Maiden races fillies will normally receive 5lbs in weight-for-sex allowance from colts & geldings. Auction Races are defined as those where the weights carried are set by the sales price of the individual horse. These races also usually allow fillies 5lbs in comparison to males for equivalent sales price groupings.

Nurseries are handicaps where the weight is set by the rating the horse has been given by the BHA's official handicapper and do not include any weight-for-sex allowance.

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    During the early part of the 2yo season you will hear pundits trying to pick 2yo winners by their foaling date. The suggestion will be that a horse has a better chance of winning if it was foaled earlier in the year because it will be more physically mature. Using this approach for individual horses and races is probably not useful because specific horses develop at different period in their life. Also, to have made a debut they must have been well developed enough to complete a basic training schedule to be ready to race on course.

The following Table shows the percentage of Wins to Runs by horses foaled in particular months during the periods March 1st to July 31st and March 1st to May 31st in the 2005 to 2013 seasons. The Turf season, and 2yo racing, usually starts on a date between March 20th to 30th depending upon when Easter falls.

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In 2007 the 206 geldings included 9 that won on debut which is a Strike Rate of 4.4%. In the same season fillies managed an unusually high debut Strike Rate of 7.2% and colts 6.9%. In 2010 the Strike Rate on Debuts for Geldings was up to 5.3% but still well behind the overall figure of 7.5% for all debuts (including geldings).

In 2013 the 228 Geldings had a debut Strike Rate of 5.7% compared with 8.7% for Colts and 6.3% for Fillies.

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