BRITISH 2yo RACING
This Document contains a brief summary of the Data that is displayed in the B2yoR Racecards. The cards have developed over the 10 years that the Website has been online and changed as greater knowledge has been gained (March 2005 example). Also, as the background of historical Data grew larger so as to be able to identify what factors were important in assessing a 2yo race in advance. Section 2 of the document works through each column in the table and describes the data contained in each one. It also gives some insight into the reasoning for including some of the Data in the 'Run # Notes' cell.
There are 3 Types, or levels, of Data that are displayed by the table :-
- Type 1 = The static Data that is permanently visible in the Table's Cells.
- Type 2 = The Data which is displayed when the Cursor is positioned over the Text in the Cells. This brings up a Box of Text over the Table which describes in brief what the Data in the Cell refers to. Most of the Cells have 'Hover Over' Text display Boxes and if they are doing their job well then this document may just be a backstop to field the more detailed questions.
- Type 3 = Links to other Web Pages, Pictures or Videos. Note that the Links which go to other Pages on the B2yoR website will open the New Page in the same Tab. For example, the Horse and Trainer Pages linked to. Onward links to Pictures, Videos and External websites (such as the Trainer's) open the new Page in a separate Tab on most browsers.
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2. COLUMN DATA EXPLANATION
The Table following is an extract from a Racecard from the 2014 Season for the Maiden at the 'Chester May' meeting. All the links and the Hover Over Text in the Table should work exactly as they would with a normal, full, Racecard Webpage. The Table has a title preceding it which gives the Course, the scheduled Start Time for the race, the distance in Furlongs (including tenths of one furlong which equals 22 yards, aka a 'Chain' & the length of a Cricket pitch), the Race Type as a Maiden in this case and the Race Class in Brackets. The number '52' is the B2yoR index number for the race and test out the 'Hover Over' text by holding your Cursor over the number.
52 - Chester 3:50 5.1f Maiden (3)
Column 1 :-
- The Top Left Hand corner of the Table is in Light Grey and holds two pieces of information. The first is the Going that the race is due to be run on. When the Racecard is first produced at the '48 hour Declarations' stage the value is set to the Going at that point. It will usually be updated on the morning of the race, if necessary.
- The second data displayed is a Yes/No flag which defines whether the race is part of the £10,000 Yearling Bonus scheme that the 'Racing Post' runs. This bonus is only available for selected Maiden races. In 2014 a second bonus to winners of selected races started under the 'BoBIS' name organised by British Breeders. This was not indicated on the racecards in 2014. At the time of writing it is unclear whether the 'Racing Post' bonus is available for 2yo races in 2015. If not, they the Y/N flag will be used to indicate races which are part of the BoBIS scheme (which have been renamed to +10, or Plus Ten, races in 2015).
- The 'Hover Over' text notes the two types of Data and the text will be updated if the bonus race Flag is used to denote 'Plus Ten' races in 2015.
- The other cells in Dark Grey are the official Card Numbers for the horse. The 'Hover Over' text gives the weight to be carried by the horse in pounds. The horses in the example are all males running in a maiden so are carrying the normal 131lbs which is equal to 9 stones and 5lbs. Fillies would carry 5lbs less in such races as 126lbs or 9st 0lbs.
Column 2 = 'Name' :-
- The main Data is the horse's Name and the text links to the season's individual 'Horse Webpage' for the 2yo.
- The 'Hover Over' text for the Names gives details of its Sire, Dam, Owner, the most recent Sale Price (if sold) and then, in square brackets, either a three letter code for the Sale or 'OB' if the horse was bred by the owner.
- The 'Hover Over' text for the 'Name' title in the top row summarises the data noted in the previous bullet point.
- If the horse has been declared a Non Runner (NR) then the Name will not be in bold text and there will be an 'NR' in Column 4.
- If there is a Picture of the horse available on the Website then there will be a small green 'Picture' icon after the horse's name. Clicking on this Icon opens the picture in a New Tab in most browsers. With Google Chrome clicking on all available Picture icons will 'stack' them in the same separate tab so they can be scrolled though.
- The 'Hover Over' text for the Picture Icon gives the Filename for the Picture which includes the date and location it was taken in standard code form.
- If there is a Video available of the horse, but not a Picture, then a yellow 'Video Icon' after the horse's name. Clicking on the icon will open the Video to play in a New Tab in most browsers.
- The 'Hover Over' text for the Video Icon gives the Internet URL for the Video File. [Note that in the example table above the 'Video' icon next to the name 'Billy Slater' links to a File which is not of that horse and has been added to the line for demonstration purposes.]
Column 3 = 'Trainer' :-
- The main Data is the Trainer's Name and the text links to the season's individual 'Trainer Runs Webpage'. There is no 'Hover Over text attached to the Name nor to the 'Trainer' title in the top row.
- If the Trainer has a worthwhile Website then there will be a small, green 'PC Video' icon after the Name. Clicking on this Icon opens the relevant Page of the trainer's Website in a New Tab of the browser. The 'Hover Over' text for the icon gives the full Internet URL for the webpage.
- A Trainer's Website is considered 'worthwhile' if it appears to have a reasonable chance of providing useful information in pre-race Profiling of horses. Typically it would mean the trainer made pictures/videos available on their website. For some trainers it may be that they do regular blogs or news items where information about their 2yos may be included. Trainers who have websites which are just static advertising tools do not have an icon link.
Column 4 = 'Run' :-
- This Column gives the 'Run Number' for the 2yo. For example the debut run would have '1' in the cell, the Second would be '2' and so on. The highest number of runs by a 2yo in each season is usually in the high teens and occasionally 20 or more. These 2yos would almost certainly be trained by one of MR (Mick) Channon or PD (David) Evans.
- The superscript number after the 'Run Number' is the number of Days since the 2yo last ran.
- There is no 'Hover Over' textattached to the Run Number nor the superscript figure. There is 'Hover Over' text for the 'Run' title in the top row which provides the information noted in the previous bullet points.
- If a horse becomes a Non Runner before the race these may be noted (not guaranteed) and the Run Number figure will be replaced by the 'NR' code.
- Note that the Data in Column 9 = 'Run # Notes' varies depending which Run the horse is on. There are different formats of the related column for debut runs (run 1), second time outs (STOs = 2) and third and higher outings (3+). There is also a different format for first runs in Nurseries which is typically on the fourth run (4TO or 4) but could be on any Run Number from 2-3 (for previous winners) or 4+.
Column 5 = '[Prf]' :-
- B2yoR produces several types of rating with the main pair being pre-race Profile figures or [Prf]s and post race performance numbers termed Etimates or [Est]s. These are both to the same B2yoR scale which is different to, and lower than, the 0-130(ish) Official Rating (OR) scale produced by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) handicapper for 2yos (Matthew Tester).
- The figure in this column is the pre-race Profile rating, the [Prf], for a horse based on the information available at that time. For a debut (First Time Out or FTO) run this would include the historical FTO Rating Average for the trainer, Virtual review of available Pictures & Videos and knowledge of the trainer's methods. Their 'Modus Operandi' (MO) or way of working. See the notes on the 'Run # Notes' column for some further details.
- For a second time out run (STO) the input to the pre-race Profile scores would be added to by the [Estimate] recorded on debut, Video review of the race and Paddock Review notes from the horse's debut. B2yoR also has average figures for the amount of improvement typical for horses, of different types, from FTO to STO for individual trainers. This data is termed the 'FTO to STO Rating Steps' or just 'Steps'.
- Profile ratings for 3TO and later would also draw on items such as Form Franking, improving with racing notes from the Video review & checking Timefigures as part of the overall 'Class Level' definition for each 2yo.
- Note that the [Prf] is a raw performance figure deemed possible for a horse with a set Profile and does not factor in the weight carried. Different people have varying approaches to accounting for weight carried so the basic figure allows it to be used in any procedure. Some people, for example, ignore differences in weight carried entirely.
Column 6 = 'Best [Est]' :-
- B2yoR produces its own performance figures for runs in 2yo races which are termed Estimates or [Est]s. They draw on Paddock Review information and are closer to Timefigures than traditional Race Standardisation/Collateral Form handicap ratings.
- This column diplays the best, i.e. the highest, Estimate the 2yo has run to in all of its outings so far. Clicking on the figure in a cell links to the Race Result webpage for the race in which the horse recorded that rating. The 'Hover Over' text for the figure shows the race title for the subject event including the unique Race ID figure.
- The 'Hover Over' text attached to the 'Best [Est]' title in the first row details how the cells are Colour Coded depending upon the best Estimate rating already achieved. In brief, those Cells coloured Pink indicate a Form Level below that required to win an 'Averagely Competitive' Open Maiden. Those coloured Amber/Yellow are a higher Class and cover the performance range which would include most Open Maidens. Cells coloured Green would indicate a notably high level Maiden performance or form capable of being competitive in higher level events.
Column 7 = 'Prev 3 [EST]' :-
- The expanded title text for this Column would be 'The Estimate Ratings the 2yo has run to on its previous 3 outings'. With the most recent outing on the far right. Clicking on each [Est] figure in the Cell links to the Race Result Webpabe for the race the rating was recorded in.
- The Estimate figures are Colour Coded in the same way as is described in the Column 6 = 'Best [Est]' notes. One example of the use would be to see whether a horse was running to its best level in recent runs, by comparison with the 'Best [Est]' figure and colour coding.
- The 'Hover Over' text for each figure gives details about the Previous and Subsequent Winners who were involved with that race. The Previous Winners in the race is given as a Single Figure. The Subsequent Winners in the race are further split down by whether they were Maidens, Auction Races (varying weight range events) or Nurseries. Note that the Race Result Webpage will indicate which horses involved are the Subsequent Winners by Code Letters in the 'Wnr' Column of the Race Result table.
- The 'Hover Over' text for the title in the first row summarises the information given in the previous bullet points.
Column 8 = 'Prev 3 PlcHf' :-
- The expanded title text for this Column would be 'The Previous 3 Final Placings achieved by the 2yo with their Position at Halfway as a superscript Figure'. With the most recent outing on the far right.
- The 'Hover Over' text for the main Final Placing figures gives the Race ID and Title and also the number of runners in the race. This allows the Final & Halfway placings to be judged in the context of how many horses ran in the event.
- The superscript figures show what Position the 2yo was at the race's Halfway point. This information has many uses, for example did the horse make or lose places after halfway? Another use is to identify horses who have previously run prominently. Superscript figures denoting a horse in the first 3 positions through halfway are coloured Red. This gives a visual cue as to how much 'Pace' there might be in a race.
- The 'Hover Over' text for the superscript figure gives how far the horse was behind the leader, in Visual Lengths, at Halfway. For the Leader, i.e. a superscript figure 1, it shows how far the horse was clear of the second horse at the Halfway point.
Column 9 = 'Run # NOTES' :-
- The hash (#) symbol in the title equates to 'Number' so that this column is used to display information relating to particular Runs (FTO, STO, etc). One important point to consider is that the data presented for the Debut and Second outings for each horse can be used to implement a very simple algorithm for producing pre-race Profile figures (equivalent to those in the [P] column). For example, you could do nothing more than use the Average figure for a trainer's FTO runners as the baseline [Prf] figure that any other system would have to improve on. You could then use the average change in rating a trainer's 2yos achieve from FTO to STO, add it to the FTO Estimate and produce a simple Profile rating for STO.
- B2yoR has now done a lot of testing of weighting factors and systems for producing FTO/STO Profile figures and it has proved exceptionally hard to improve on simply using the average figures. For example, a range of prized Pundit tools, such as 2yo's birthdates, do not improve the correctness achieved by just using the basic average numbers.
- Data in this cell for Debut Runs (i.e., run 1, the FTO) :-
- The main figure in the cell in bold text is the Average Rating on Debut of all of the trainer's qualifying 2yos in the period 2010-14 (5 seasons). Non-qualifiers are those 2yos who posted an Estimate rating below Zero on Debut and including them would skew the data. These negative raters FTO are termed 'Lost Debuts' by B2yoR. Remember from the point above that if you just placed this figure into the [P] (Profile Rating) column for all debut runners you would achieve a conformance to the actual Estimates the 2yos ran to which is very hard to beat by adding ather scoring factors.
- The 'Hover Over' text for the bold figure cryptically gives the year range the figure is an average over (1113 = 2011-13 in the table above) and it says 1014 in 2015 to indicate the 2010-14 range. It also provides the Total number of qualifying 2yos, and as ever the higher the sample size the better. The final figure is then the number of 'Lost Debuts' which have been excluded from the Average calculation. This is interesting to get a feel for what percentage of a trainer's 2yos run complete clunkers FTO.
- The three figures in the Brackets then show the Average FTO Estimate ratings for the same set of qualifying 2yos in the 2010-14 period but split down by three Groups. The groupings are whether the 2yos proved to be 'Winners', 'Placers' or 'Unplaced' as their best finishing placing by the season end. Which is a rough grouping by 'ability'. For most trainers with a large enough sample of 2yos you will see that the W-P-U set of averages do decline from the highest average figure for Winners down to the lowest for those juveniles unplaced on all runs.
- If you use these W-P-U averages you can improve on the outcomes by just using a single average. As a rough guide it improves matters by around 5%. The issue is that this is using information only fully known by the season end. But, it does give a clue that the factors you need to focus on are those that definitely impinge of the actual ability a horse has. Not on those which 'might' have some bearing but at several removes. The B2yoR view being that the biggest clues to whether a horse on debut is likely to be a Winner/Placer/Unplacer will be Visual. Go straight to the 'Signal' and do not bother with '(Mostly) Noise' further away from the physical specimen - such as Birthdates, many Pedigree tools, Horoscopes, etc.
- There is no 'Hover Over' text for the W-P-U trio of numbers in the brackets.
- If you hold your cursor over the 'SP' text in the cell then it should display a simple table of 5 rows. This breaks the same 2010-14 data for debuts down by 5 x SP groups. The grouping going from shortest SPs as Group '1)' to the longest in Group '5)'. The first figure after the Group title is the Average FTO rating for the 2yos whose SPs on debut were in that Group. The final figure, in brackets, is the number of qualifying 2yos in that Group.
- The SP Groupings are (1) 2/1 and shorter; (2) above 2/1 up to 5/1; (3) above 5/1 up to 10/1; (4) above 10/1 up to 16/1; (5) longer than 16/1.
- The figures can be used to assess whether the representatives of a trainer which start at shorter SPs also run to higher Estimate ratings FTO, on average. For example, some trainers like Richard Fahey show a matching decline of Average Rating as the SPs increase. Other trainers seem to show no correlation and the Average Ratings for 16/1+ 2yos is as high as those in the shortest grouping. Another 'Market Signal' test.
- Data in this cell for Second Runs (i.e., run 2, the STO) :-
- The Format of the Data in this Cell is Similar to that for the FTOs (Run 1s). The Data displayed is the average change in Estimate Rating on STO compared to FTO for all of the Trainer's qualifying STO runners in the period 2010-14. In this case horses who achieved a negative Estimate on either of the FTO/STO runs, or both, is excluded from the Data. Note that the changes in Estimate Rating from FTO to STO are termed 'Steps' by B2yoR.
- The main figure in the cell in bold text is the Average value of the FTO to STO Step for all of the trainer's qualifying 2yos during 2010-14. For example in the demonstration Table above the average value for Richard Fahey is a notably low 3.0 while for David Evans it is at 7.2 which is a touch above the average across all trainers. A simple Profile Rating algorithm for STOs would be just to add this overall average figure to the Estimate rating the horse achieved FTO. In tests it has again proved difficult to beat this simple algorithm across a large sample of trainer's STOs.
- The 'Hover Over' text for the main figure in Bold Text gives 3 extra pieces of Data with the first the total number of STOs in the period for the trainer. The second figure is the 'Median' figure for all of the Trainer's 2yos which can be compared with the arithmetical 'Mean' which is displayed as the Average. Given the bounded nature of the Rating Range (Zero up to around 65, say) then the Median figure is rarely a long way from the Mean but the differences do carry some extra information.
- The third figure is the 'Standard Deviation' (SD) calculated across the 'Steps' recorded for all of the trainer's qualifying 2yos. For those unfamiliar with the SD here is a sample definition - ".. a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values.". Consider two extremes to make the point, if every Step in a trainer's Data was 5.0 the SD would be Zero because none of the individual values was different from the Mean. The SD for a data set of (20, 20, 20, 1, 1, 1) is 9.5 with the Mean at 10.5. In the second example the 'Mean' figure is nowhere near any of the actual values and the SD of 9.5 an indication of how wide the data varies from the Mean overall. In rough terms the smaller the SD the better.
- The three figures in the Brackets then show the Average FTO to STO Steps for the same set of qualifying 2yos in the 2010-14 period but split down by three Groups. The groupings are whether the 2yos proved to be 'Winners', 'Placers' or 'Unplaced' as their best finishing placing by the season end. Which is a rough grouping by 'ability'. Looking at the demonstration table the David Evans' split for W-P-U 2yos of 11 - 6 - 2 is fairly typical. Better horses showing bigger Steps to STO and lesser athletes show smaller Steps. All 'on Average', of course.
- After the set of three bracketed number there will be one of three letters = 'W' in green text, 'P' in amber text or 'U' in red text. The letters stand for the usual Winner/Placer/Unplaced grouping for the trainer's 2yos as their best result across the whole season. The letter and the colouring denote how highly rated the 2yo was on debut compared to the trainer's W-P-U FTO average figures This is an attempt to see how well correlated the season long W-P-U splitting of 2yos for a trainer matches with the actual ability they showed FTO.
- Data in this cell for Third Runs and above (i.e., run 3+, the 3TO+) :-
- Except for when the 2yo is having its first run in a Nursery this field will only have a 'D' in it. The letter is just an anchor to attach the 'Hover Over' text to.
- The 'Hover Over' text shows the Distribution of Best Estimates by Run Number as percentages across all runs, for the trainer in the period 2011-14. The first figure titled 'Count' is the number of individual 2yos that are included in the distribution data. The second figure titled 'RpR' is the average numbers of runs made by the trainer's 2yos in the 2014 season.
- Below that are five Titles indicating the Run Number (1, 2, 3, 4, 5+) and next to them the percentage of the trainer's 2yos who showed their best form on that Run Number. The percentage figure in brackets following is the same data averaged across all trainers in 2011-14. This enables the trainer's record to be compared with a notional 'Standard Trainer'.
- One point to note is that the data will include 2yos that only ran once, twice, and so on. Therefore the percentage of the Overall 2yo Population that make higher Run Number outings will depend on how often a trainer typically runs their 2yos. Even with that caveat the figures often show up items such as whether a trainer tilts their preparation towards strong debuts and STOs or treats early runs as 'Educational' to develop from. For example consider the figures for WGM (Bill) Turner & Ron Harris in the table below. Are they different types of Trainer by this measure?
- Data in this cell for First Runs in Nurseries (on whatever Run Number that is for the 2yo) :-
- Except for when the 2yo is having its first run in a Nursery this field will only have a 'D' in it. The letter is just an anchor to attach the 'Hover Over' text to. On the 2yo's first run in a Nursery there will also be the text 'N1' in the field. This is also just an anchor for the 'Hover Over' text.
- The 'Hover Over' text has two parts with the first being two pairs of percentage figures at the top of the 'Hover' box. The first of these is the percentage of the trainer's 2yos than improved their Best Estimate on their first run in a nursery in the period 2011-14. The percentage figure alongside in brackets is the average for FT Nursery improvers across all trainers for the same period. The pair of percentages below this are the trainer's percentage of 2yos that did not improve their Best Rating in their First Nursery with the overall average for all trainers in brackets alongside.
- The three figures at the bottom of the 'Hover' box in brackets then display the 'count' data the percentages are calculated from. The first number is the Total of all 2yos that made a 'First Nursery' run for the trainer during 2011-14. The next two figures split this Total down into the number of 2yos that improved their Best Rating in the first nursery and those which did not. The larger the Total of First Time Nursery runs the percentages are built on the better because of the larger sample size.
Column 10 = 'Gen Notes' :-
- This Column was initially to be use to put extra information into and specific highlight items to note for an individual runner. This proved quite time consuming to maintain and the data was probably not much used.
- The main Data still put into this field relates to Nursery Races so will not be in play until early June. See this link to a 2014 example to view the format of the Nursery Data.
- In the Nursery Race example the bold text figure is the Official Rating that the horse was running off in the race. The 'Hover Over' text for that figure displays the OR rating the horse had for its last 3 outings. This enables a person to see whether the horse's rating is increasing or declining and matching that to the recent Placings and Estimates achieved.
- The Figure in square brackets is the Official Rating number minus the B2yoR Best Estimate Figure. The lower the Figure then the 'better in' the 2yo might be on the highest B2yoR performance rating it has run to. The 'Hover Over' text for the figure summarises the calculation.
'2013-2012-2011' Table :-
- Clicking on each of the numbers will link to the Result for the comparable Race in the year specified. For example, with the Brocklesby Stakes it would allow a person to see what trainers had runners previously and how their 2yos performed.
- Some races, for example those at the newly (re-)opened Chelmsford City racecourse (aka Great Leighs = GLGH), will have no links to previous years because there was no comparable race. As the workload increases during the Season then the links are usually only implemented for important races.
- The 'Hover Over' text summarises the use of the links. Note that the example given is from 2014 so the previous years were 2011-13. In 2015 these will become the three years, 2012, 2013 and 2014.
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