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The 2000-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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JUNE 13th SUMMING UP
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A good edition of the race with some solid early season form and a range
of potential in the lightly raced types. As usual the majority of runners
are not fully tested and publically known form is going to be only part
of equation.
B A Foxtrot recorded the best rating so far with a a 6L win in the
Woodcote at Epsom. The time was just ok without being startling but the
manner of his victory suggested he had something in hand. The strength
of the opposition and the fact that he handled the course so well may have
contributed to the visually impressive success.
If you believe in physical inspection as the key to finding the best 2yos
then examples like him pose a slight problem. He's already shown form well
above his appearance and since he cost only 12k guineas at the sales most
people thought the same. He's been helped to his early season performances
by his precocity and professionalism. As a general rule these types fall
below top class and the better physical types catch up but he sets a good
standard just on what he's shown. If we do the 'One year from now' test
at what level is he likely to be competing? It's difficult to see him still
being Group 2 standard then and that would mean he would need an average
edition of the race to actually win.
Of the others with more than one run Red Clubs is another smaller,
ready type who put up a quite impressive performance in quickening
away from an average group. His trainer has not had a runner in the race
in the last five years and in general runs competitive types in these major
races. He has a similar profile to B A Foxtrot and again you would expect
there to be others with more potential in the field.
The runners with the best overall profiles, and both possess the scope
to still be competing at this level next year, are To Sender &
Marcus Andronicus and either would make an above average winner. In
profile terms is is difficult to find anything negative about To Sender.
His dam could have shown a bit more on the racecourse but then she could
introduce you to her brothers and sisters and you would have to shut up.
It's a similar story with Marcus Andronicus although with a few more small
cracks.
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RACE QUALITY:
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A variable quality race but normally requiring a rating over 100 by the
winner. The 2000 race was thin on good quality for example while the next
year's race was very strong by comparison.
The big field and the runners primed for the race usually ensures a strong
pace and that the best runners come to the fore and often win by good margins
from the just 'useful' types.
A look through the results from the last 5 years below show that it is
rare for the best 2yos not to make the first 3-4 places and will usually
include those runners with the potential to win at a higher level at 2yo
and play significant roles in better races from 3yo onwards.
The oddities in that period have identifiable causes. Rock Of Gibraltar
was only 6th in 2001 but was hampered early in the race and dropped to
the back of the field and had to use his effort just to get into the race.
The two who placed 3rd at 33/1 in 2002 & 2004 were both outpaced and
unable to go the strong pace. They both plugged on through the stalled
'useful' group to get a volunteer third which did not really reflect their
ability. The third from 2002 was still a maiden at 4yo despite all the
'..a certainty for a maiden on this..' notes afterwards.
In line with the best horses usually winning it is rare for a runner at
a longer SP to win. Landseer won at 20/1 in 2001 but was a 3yo Group 1
winner so he was at the wrong SP rather than being a 'fluke' winner.
So, to distil this into a short piece of advice. Although there's 15 runners
the majority of them will be somewhere between average to just above useful
and would only be competitive to place in this race in a below average
year. What you should be looking for are those 2-3 runners who are superior,
capable of rating 100+ and will still be competing at Group 1-2 level by
this meeting next year.
For example, imagine it's 2006 and the Royal Meeting is about to start.
Do you think BA Foxtrot and/or Sir Xaar will be close to the head of the
market for the St James' Palace Stakes (having placed in the Guineas)?
Or are they precocious and useful 2yos who will be struggling to win a
Listed race by then? What about To Sender & Marcus Andronicus?
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TRAINERS:
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J Gosden (To Sender) has run three in the last 5 years with one
winner a third place and an unplaced runner.
AP O'Brien (Marcus Andronicus & Amigoni) has won the race twice
in the last five years and one third place in a moderate 200 edition. He
also had Ivan Denisovish & George Washington entered at the 5 day stage.
AP Jarvis runs the maiden Trans Sonic. His only runner in the previous
3 years was Dark Sorcerer who was also a maiden and had placed in a Listed
race previously. He was still a maiden at the end of the season.
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SIRES:
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First season sires Distant
Music (Tent) & Mozart
(Amadeus Wolf) have runners.
Of the other sires only Danehill
(Amigoni & Marcus Andronicus) has had a winner of the race in the last
5 years (Landseer in 2001).
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