British 2yo Racing - 2005 Season Race Profile

BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Nursery Summary Page

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Race 302 : Lingfield, July 6th : 5f Nursery (5)

The target with Nursery races is to identify those runners which have got in with an Official Rating which does not reflect their full ability. The [Profile] rating reflects the view of what the horse should be capable of given not just previous form but also physical reviews and trainer strategies. The figure in the [Difference] column will indicate how 'well in' the runner appears to be at the weights. Remember that this is a basic rating based on physical capabilities and will not include subtleties like draw, going and trainer form.

Declared Runners:

	Official Rating	[Profile]	Difference	Comments	Post Race [Estimate]
1. Figjam	84	62	-22	?? What on earth has he done to earn that rating?	74
2. Tous Les Deux	81	72	-9	Solid form over 5f and poor run over 6f last time with a bad fade. In context of race has realistic OR that he should be competitive to win.	38
3. Tin And Lint	75	59	-16	Drops back to 5f after poor run at 6f. Won claimer from poor types and looks over-rated by OR.	64
4. Don Peter	72	64	-8	Returns after a long break and while lacking scope to develop has a realistic OR in comparison to most of the others. Probably paid for setting a too strong pace for his level LTO.	37
5. Halcyon Lodge	72	57	-15	Non progressive and looks short of pace (& power) for 5f. Faded when tried at 6f and looks over-rated.	31
6. Buzzin' boyzee	70	52	-18	Small although a trier. Outpaced over 5f on debut and regressive form over 6f. Lack pace for 5f again probably.	35
7. Bathwick Intyre	70	57?	-13	Two poor 5f runs since changed stable but lost ground at the start STO and hung left onto less fast ground at Sandown. Has a little potential to rate higher and be competitive.	39
8. Blue Jeans	69	55	-14	Poor form on three runs but beat two subsequent winners LTO who were both on debut while she was 3TO. Needs to improve on what she has shown and no obvious signs she has that improvement. Trainer's Nursery record in 2004 was 4 wins from 94 runs and he tends to get runners to show solid form in their first 2-3 runs and they need to be able to improve (most often for distance increases) to win off their OR marks.	27
9. Tafilah	67	47	-20		46
10. Saxon Saint	64	49	-15		20
11. Blue Minx	60 (OH 57)	42	-18		36
12. Left Nostril	60 (OH 57)	40	-20		22

Pre-Race Summary :

As with the previous day's Pontefract Nursery a low quality race with most of the runners over-rated and lacking scope to improve. Tous Les Deux and Don Peter have both shown enough against better types to suggest they have competitive OR levels in this group.

Post Race Notes :

A surprising result although superficially just conforming to the "back the topweight in the nursery" maxim. The overall story is probably a little more complicated and it's worth noting the number of runners that performed well below expectations. One possible answer is to assume Figjam is even better than his OR84 figure. But even if you assume he's a 100 rateable horse (very unlikely) then most of the field still ran comfortably below expectations so there must be other reasons.

1) Racing close to the rail seemed to be a distinct advantage and both 2yo races on the card saw runners on the rail open up longish distances in the last 2f and apparently showing much improved form. The first three home here all raced close to the rail (despite the draws in the case of the 2nd & 3rd) and they were the only three to run close to expectations.

2) The race featured a strong pace and those runners which raced close to the lead and off the rail faded notably, as a group, in the last 2f.

Figjam therefore had the advantage of the rail although did he best of those closer to the pace. With the two runners with slightly better than average profiles failing he beat Tin And Lint & Tafilah by the expected margins so the key is to place those three on the OR scale. While he's clearly improved to 70+ level he doesn't impress as a real OR84 type. In a competitive race and with a raise in his OR rating he would be one to oppose. Worth noting that the trainer has now won three 2yo races in the last week with runners that showed mixed form in their first three-four runs.

Tin And Lint sat well behind and moved across to the rail then made good progress up the rail as the pacemakers fading (making it look as if he almost 'quickened'). He showed slightly improved form and had both advantages of rail position and missing the early pace.

Tafilah ran to expectations and finished third without ever being involved in the race. Behind and off the pace she plodded on late for a volunteer third.

The 'disappointments' all had negatives in their overall profile and all faded notably after attended the pace and racing off the rail. Don Peter's early season form was below 70 level although in better company than most of the field. He showed reasonable pace to be front rank although at least 5-6 wide of the rail. Faded again in the last 2f and did not give the impression he's improving.

Tous Les Deux faded badly over 6f last time and this might have been down to the distance. However, he again faded here which makes three times out of four and he's only finished a race off well in a slow time on the flat Windsor course. Although the trainer's Mujood won a 6f race with a strong finish yesterday all of his 2yos have showed varied form and poor finishes in some runs. The stable has had minor illness problems which have caused similar problems in the last two seasons.

Blue Jeans was supported from 7/1 down to 4/1 and difficult to know whether this was people supporting the stable because of the current high strike rate or 'stable money'. She faded after the usual pairing of racing prominently. away from the rail. But her overall level of form is moderate and while the trainer might find a small race for her she hasn't shown anything to suggest she's got a lot of latent ability.

The others are some mixture of poor to moderate types and ran as expected depending upon their run style.