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The 2000-2005 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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JUNE 19th SUMMING UP
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A solid renewal without looking high class. As the 'Race Quality' section
below describes we should be looking for the small number of truly superior
horses in the field. The race is normally run in such a way to expose the
limitations of just 'useful' juveniles.
Presumably the Coolmore Gang didn't use up the name Holy Roman Emporer
on a horse of limited ability and he has been identified as their best
early 2yo for some time. He was a comfortable winner of a maiden on debut
and AP O'Brien tends to look for educational debuts these days. The trainer
used to win the race regularly but has not had a place in the last three
seasons. This perhaps reflects a more developmental strategy with the 2yos.
However, in the last two years his unplaced horses have been Oratorio (10f
Group 1 winner at 3yo) and Marcus Adronicus (placed in the French Guineas)
and in the long term probably the best horses in the field. They were beaten
by more precocious 2yo types who didn't develop. We probably have a similar
set-up here with HRE related to winners over 7-10f and his pedigree says
he should be better with more time and distance. He's likely to be the
horse still in the frame somewhere when the Classics come around next year
but will he have the readiness, conditioning and zip to win this?
The best of the British runners seem to be good 2yos and lacking that longer
term scope (similar to the best of the 2005 field that saw off Marcus Andronicus).
The group of Hellvelyn, Major Cadeaux, Jo'Burg, Baby
Strange & Sadeek have looked good 2yos without showing anything
startling (last year's winner Red Clubs for example had shown us an ability
to quicken which we have not seen this term). Helvellyn hasn't been tested
yet and has looked a straightforward, willing type and suited to fast ground.
His trainer is a positive given the way he handled the development of his
best types last season including the fourth in this race with Sir Xaar.
Helvellyn has a better profile than that 9,000gns purchase and ought to
set a good standard for the others.
Baby Strange routed average types on debut and then showed a reasonable
approximation of a turn of foot to win a Conditions event at the course.
He looked like a simmering pot in the pre-race on that occasion but it
did not affect him in the race. His sire's runners have tended to show
their best form on their early runs and the trainer's previous attempt
at a runner in the race went nutty at the start (Red Power). So, a solid
contender but probably lacking scope to develop from what he's shown and
a lot less bombproof than Hellvelyn.
Major Cadeaux has plenty of size but is not particularly neatly made. He
has been given an unusual preparation by his trainer in that he hasn't
been running over 5f. This may help him improve his trainer's record in
the race but he has not shown a sure hand in getting colts to peak at 6f
in this race recently.
Jo'Burg is a strong, barrel of a horse but below average size. He made
a good debut by the trainer's standards when finishing second to Major
Cadeaux FTO. He will improve but his lack of size seems likely to limit
him against the very best in the field.
Of the others only the Kevin Ryan trained pair Sadeek & Prince
Golan along with Tariq appeal as likely to run above their profile.
Mr Ryan has made a fine job of developing his 2yos in the last 18 months
and seems to be ahead of schedule in terms of fitness and conditioning
in 2006. Sadeek beat Aidan O'Brien's only British raced 2yo on debut on
soft ground and then looked less good on Epsom's tilted straight on firm
ground. While likely to be in top form he looks a little below the best
in this field. Prince Golan appeals as most likely 'ew surprise' if there
is one.
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RACE QUALITY:
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A variable quality race but normally requiring a rating over 100 by the
winner. The 2000 race was thin on good quality for example while the next
year's race was very strong by any standards.
The big field and the runners primed for the race usually ensures a strong
pace and that the best runners come to the fore and often win by good margins
from the just 'useful' types.
A look through the results from the last 6 years below show that it is
rare for the best 2yos not to make the first 3-4 places and will usually
include those runners with the potential to win at a higher level at 2yo
and play significant roles in better races from 3yo onwards.
The oddities in that period have identifiable causes. Rock Of Gibraltar
was only 6th in 2001 but was hampered early in the race and dropped to
the back of the field and had to use his effort just to get into the race.
The two who placed 3rd at 33/1 in 2002 & 2004 were both outpaced and
unable to go the strong pace. They both plugged on through the stalled
'useful' group to get a volunteer third which did not really reflect their
ability. The third from 2002 was still a maiden at 4yo despite all the
'..a certainty for a maiden on this..' notes afterwards.
In line with the best horses usually winning it is rare for a runner at
a longer SP to win. Landseer won at 20/1 in 2001 but was a 3yo Group 1
winner so he was at the wrong SP rather than being a 'fluke' winner.
So, to distill this into a short piece of advice. Although there's 21 runners
the majority of them will be somewhere between average to just above useful
and would only be competitive to place in this race in a below average
year. What you should be looking for are those 2-3 runners who are superior,
capable of rating 100+ and will still be competing at Group 1-2 level by
this meeting next year.
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TRAINERS:
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AP O'Brien (Marcus Andronicus & Amigoni) has won the race twice
in the last five years and one third place in a moderate 200 edition. He
also had Ivan Denisovish & George Washington entered at the 5 day stage.
R Hannon has run 7 in the last 6 years with just Bram Stoker's second
place in the very weak 2000 race to show for it. His unplaced runners in
the last two seasons have been amongst the few in each field who have won
later in the season (Cool Creek won at Group 2 level). In general he starts
his 2yos earlier than the average and runs many over 5f despite their pedigrees.
A possible theory is that his methods do not produce his colts at their
best for this race. However, Major Cadeaux has had a single run over 6f
- will this make any difference?
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SIRES:
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Of the other sires only Danehill
(Holy Roman Emporer) has had a winner of the race in the last 5 years (Landseer
in 2001).
First season sires have a strong representation with 10 of the 21 runners
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Fath (Chjimes) has got a number of
smaller but very precocious 2yos and three British winners to date. Chjimes
is bigger than his average runner.
Golan (Prince Golan) has made a
good start given that he ran only once (over 7f) at 2yo himself. He has
two winners (5.5 & 6f) from five runners and another runner placed
Invincible Spirit (Captain
Marvelous & Deadshot Keen) vies with Kyllachy for the most number of
runners to date and 8 of his 25 representatives have won.
Ishiguru (Helvellyn) has a very
unbalanced record with Helvellyn his only winner from 8 runners and the
others looking moderate runners. At 100,000gns Helvellyn was miles above
his average for yearlings sold in 2005.
Johannesburg (Jo'burg &
Johannesburg Jack) has only had 6 runners despite his own 'complete 2yo'
record. The only winner has been Johannesburg Jack (50/1 at Brighton after
a bad debut run).
Kyllachy (Sadeek & Tariq)
26 runners so far and five winners and he lacked the early 5f winners that
Invincible Spirit got (with limited physical types). Four of his six wins
on heavy ground.
Noverre (Mubaashir) was a precocious
2yo and has 3 winners from 11 runners - all at 5f and three of the four
wins on debut.
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